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OwnersBox- Main slate (12 games) – starts at 1:04 p.m. EDT
DK/FD – Main slate (9 games) – starts 1:05 p.m. EDT
CHC@CIN has a good chance of rain. However, that game is not featured on any of the DFS slates. All other games should go off without a hitch, but cold temperatures and wind should hinder offenses in the PIT@BOS and SF@CHW games. Slight advantage to hitters in ATL@STL and TB@WAS with modest breezes blowing out.
We have numerous Opening Day starters making their second start of the season. It’s easy to overreact to the successes (Kyle Muller) or failures (Jacob deGrom) of those Opening Day starts, but we must remember they are just one game and should be taken with a grain of salt.
Shane McClanahan has to be the safest pick of the day. He looked like his usual dominant self in his first start against Detroit and now he gets an even more putrid offense in Washington. For some reason, Tampa’s stud lefty is also discounted on DraftKings and OwnersBox. While he may be highly owned, he could allow you to get a few more quality bats in your lineup while still having the top pitcher on the day.
Cristian Javier pitched a little better than his line indicates in his first start against the White Sox and now he gets the aforementioned Tigers at home. Javier is another guy priced slightly lower than he probably should be, and you can make a very solid lineup by plugging in him and McClanahan right off the bat.
Don’t fall for the Opening Day trap. Yes, Jacob deGrom struggled big time against a formidable Phillies lineup familiar to him. But remember, this is still Jacob deGrom, one of, if not the best pitcher in baseball. While he got hit hard, he still had 7 Ks and 0 BBs in 3.2 innings. Playing an upstart Baltimore lineup means that I think a lot of people will be off deGrom today and you could really separate yourself by playing him if he goes off. Especially in FanDuel where he is inexplicably the seventh-highest-priced pitcher on the board.
Mitch Keller had mixed results during his Opening Day start, with the plus being eight K’s in 4.2 innings and the minus being the four BB’s and six hits. Roansy Contreras did a good job of limiting the hot Red Sox lineup last night and if you want a GPP dart through that could pay off, Keller could put up some nice numbers at an extremely low price for you.
I am staying far away from Bryce Elder and Miles Mikolas today. I’m just not a big believer in either overall and when you throw in the quality lineups for Atlanta and St. Louis with a slight weather bump you get a potentially high-scoring game.
As I detailed above, I don’t believe in the starters in the ATL-STL matchup so you can bet that I will be stacking that game. Of course you should be plugging in the big bats like Ronald Acuña Jr., Paul Goldschmidt, Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Nolan Arenado. But you can also find some good value down the board for this game. Travis d’Arnaud has been mashing the ball so far and is reasonably priced for a catcher with that much upside. Orlando Arcia is also an extremely cheap way to get some exposure to the ATL lineup and he was able to leave the yard last night. For the Cardinals, Nolan Gorman has the power to put up a big day any day and Dylan Carlson/Alec Burleson could provide great value as one or both could be hitting near the top of the STL order.
The Rays are the only undefeated team left in baseball and part of the reason for that is they are 2nd in baseball in team wRC+. The trio of Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, and Yandy Díaz have been dominant for Tampa and today they get WAS LHP Patrick Corbin, who pitched to a 5.08 FIP against RHH last year as opposed to 3.89 FIP against LHH. I also like Isaac Paredes in that one as a way to free up some salary, as the undervalued infielder hit for a 142 wRC+ against lefties last season.
Other bats of note:
- If you are playing on OwnersBox, and you should be, you have access to the LAA-SEA game and I wouldn’t blame you for stacking the Angels OF trio of Mike Trout, Taylor Ward and Hunter Renfroe against the perpetually mediocre Chris Flexen.
- Corey Kluber was shelled in his first start against Baltimore and a pesky Pirates lineup could prove troublesome again. Bryan Reynolds has been one of the hottest hitters in the game and we all know the upside Oneil Cruz provides, but someone like Ji Hwan Bae could win you some money with his speed and surprising pop.
Hitter Pricing 4-5-23