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OwnersBox- Main slate (10 games) – starts at 1:09 p.m. EDT
DK/FD – Main slate (10 games) – starts 1:10 p.m. EDT
Some weather issues in the SF@DET and BAL@CHW matchups are a cause for concern, even to the point that I’m probably avoiding those games for fear of a PPD. A slight bump to the offenses in ATL@KC and PIT@STL as there are some strong gusts carrying toward the outfields.
Plenty of good pitchers to choose from on Sunday, which makes price shopping and ownership even more important. While he is the highest-priced pitcher on the slate, I’m looking to start my lineups with Gerrit Cole, who has been his usual impressive self so far this season. He faces a Minnesota Twins team that hasn’t been overly impressive this series outside of their 9-run first-inning outburst on Thursday. The Twins’ 25.6 K% is good for the 4th-highest in baseball and I’m feeling a double-digit strikeout performance from Cole. Hopefully, his high price tag and the plethora of other top-end options will drive people off of Cole.
Someone who has not been their usual impressive self in 2023 is Aaron Nola, sporting a 7.04 ERA. That has driven his price tag down considerably and I will gladly roster an underpriced Nola. The worst thing you can do is overreact to a couple of bad early-season starts. This is still Aaron Nola, his stuff hasn’t changed and he should be able to handle a moderately weak Reds lineup. Don’t overthink this, go with Nola.
Mitch Keller’s performance since last June warrants more respect than he is getting from the industry. After the All-Star break, Keller had a 3.09 ERA compared to a 4.55 ERA in the first half and he has been excellent in his first three starts of 2023. In his last outing, Keller held the powerful Astros lineup to two solo home runs while striking out 7 over 6 innings. Now he gets a St. Louis lineup that has scored just 6 runs in their 3 games against the Pirates and has struggled overall this season outside of their series in Coors. Eventually, people are going to realize how good Keller is pitching, but until then take advantage of his low price point.
While the rain has me probably staying away from this game if Grayson Rodriguez does get to pitch he could provide some excellent value against the White Sox. An excellent team against LHP, Chicago struggles against RHP with just a 94 wRC+. They rarely take walks and with Rodriguez’s filthy arsenal, he is sure to get his fair share of strikeouts. He wasn’t overly impressive in his first two career starts but the more comfortable he gets in the Majors the more his talent will shine through. Proceed with caution, but take a look at a cheap Grayson Rodriguez if you dare.
Patrick Corbin is just a disaster. Sorry to say it but it’s the truth. He has allowed 24 hits and 6 walks in his 14 innings this season and carries a 7.71 ERA into the matchup with the Guardians. Don’t get it twisted, Cleveland doesn’t have the most daunting of offenses but they can certainly put up numbers against the likes of Corbin. Josh Bell has started to heat up after a tough start and of course, Jose Ramirez is a stud as well. Amed Rosario is another bat to watch in this game and Myles Straw could stack up some fantasy points with his speed on the basepaths.
Luis Cessa’s 7.00 ERA is not the same as Aaron Nola’s 7.04 ERA. The former Yankee has struggled with his command this season and got batted around by Atlanta in his last start. The Philadelphia offense has not experienced a World Series hangover despite the absence of Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins. You have the superstars batting 2-3-4 in Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos, but don’t sleep on guys like Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh. Stott has excelled in the leadoff role batting .375 with 3 stolen bases and Marsh is slashing .333/.409/.744. Great American Ballpark should help the Phillies’ offense in this one and I think they back up Nola nicely.
Zack Greinke continues to find ways to get batters out in his old age, but handling an Atlanta offense that has scored 19 runs in the last two games is going to be a tall task. Sean Murphy and Ozzie Albies each had 3 hits and 4 RBIs yesterday and the 1-2-3 trio of Ronald Acuna, Jr., Matt Olson, and Austin Riley is daunting no matter who is on the mound. The 3rd ranked offense in baseball will certainly be one to target on Sunday, but I am also interested in some players on the opposing side as well. Kyle Wright was a shell of his 2022 self in his first start, giving up 4 hits, walks, and runs in 3 innings against Cincinnati. There are some interesting bats on the Kansas City side, starting off with Bobby Witt, Jr. Lefty power bats MJ Melendez and Vinnie Pasquantino provide good value and Edward Olivares could be a very sneaky pick with his contact ability and speed on the bases. Expect a lot of runs to cross the plate on both sides here.
Hitter Pricing 4-9-23