Happy Friday! Yet another more extensive slate falls upon us. In this case, we get a bounty of SPs, leading to a ton of value plays. On the hitting spectrum, salaries lean on the higher side, making stacks quite a task. Fortunately, the weather won’t factor into any games, and we shouldn’t expect any in-game interruptions. The first games being at 7:05 PM EST, so you’ve got plenty of time to fine-tune those GPP-winning lineups. Good luck!
Implied Run Totals
There is quite a bit to unpack here. For starters, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Toronto or Tampa Bay has one of the highest Implied Run Totals(IRT). I think for a slate this big, and with so many quality pitchers taking the mound, both squads could go under-rostered. Head to the stacks section, and I like both of those offenses for today.
What is somewhat of a shocker is Minnesota and Kansas City getting a combined 9.5 IRT. Both offenses are not terrific and could be an excellent source of one-off plays. Salvador Perez at catcher, anyone?
Due to the slate having so many quality pitchers, pricing is lower than usual for most. So, to make matters easier, I am putting them in buckets and
Ray and Valdez are my top picks for an SP1. Ray is well on his way to earning the Cy Young and riding a double-digit K streak of four games. He draws Baltimore, which carries a ton of strikeouts and a lackluster profile. However, Ray might draw a ton of attention, and saving a ton of salary for Valdez would be tremendous. Let’s face it, the Angels’ offense is Ohtani and a few decent players. Valdez should shove today.
Both of these are my top cash game options as well. In terms of “safe” with high floors, and will go deep enough into games to pay off the inflated price tags.
Tyler Mahle has been significantly better on the road and gets a much-needed park upgrade. His matchup against the Cardinals should limit any chances of the pesky HRs. The slider/fastball combo is always there, and if the offspeed shows up, it could be a huge day. If you wanted to toss Mahle in a double-ups, I don’t hate it one bit!
On the flip side, Ohtani draws the more formidable opponent. That could keep a few people off of him in GPPs. However, Ohtani has the K% to rival the other SPs. Although, Houston has been struggling lately and only has an 86 wRC+ vs. RHP in the last two weeks. In summation, Ohtani is a risky play that should only get consideration in GPPs.
This is the lost misfit tier. Márquez and Ian Anderson are significantly better pitchers than their price tag. Grabbing Márquez outside of Coors Field is a victory in itself, and there is no reason to believe he can’t toss a gem. Remember, Philly is a much weaker offense without Rhys Hoskins. Also, Ian Anderson‘s salary is far too cheap. The rest of the field knows this too, and we should expect his roster% to be through the roof. Consider both of these SP2s as a good pairing with my Seattle stack(see below).
Stacks are going to be a bit more challenging today. The glut of viable SPs can make stacks with good matchups too chalky. So, I am going to suggest two powerhouse stacks and one that could go under-rostered. Keep in mind, for any GPP, if you’re taking a chalkier stack, you’ll need to find SPs rostered in fewer lineups.
Toronto Blue Jay (vs. Chris Ellis)
- Let’s start with the obvious, the Blue Jays are very good, and Chris Ellis is a middle-of-the-road SP (at best). Where Ellis struggles the most is against walking right-handed bats and not striking out left-handed bats. So far, Ellis has done a decent job limiting the power and shows a .140 ISO to batters from both sides of the plate. This entire stack will be pricey, so you’ll have to find value in one-offs or SPs. The core targets are Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Marcus Semien, and Teoscar Hernandez. If you’re looking for that fifth person to stack, get a little different and try to avoid Bo Bichette.
Tampa Bay Rays (vs. Matt Boyd)
- The top-scoring team in the MLB is the Tampa Bay Rays, and they demolish southpaws. However, anyone still playing DFS into football season probably knows this too. While there are some expensive parts to this stack, there are quite a few excellent values to help save money elsewhere. On the hill is Matt Boyd, who might only go 80-90 pitches(or roughly five innings). That’s even better because Detroit’s bullpen allows 1.22 HR/9 and carries a 4.29 SIERA. Core stack targets: Manuel Margot, Wander Franco, Nelson Cruz, and Mike Zunino.
Seattle Mariners (vs. Madison Bumgarner)
- Seattle isn’t what we would call a powerhouse offense but has some lovely pieces. However, they’ve got quite a few bats with ISOs over .250 vs. LHP. While MadBum has done a better job limiting quality contact to right-handed, but a sub-20% K-rate and .190 ISO is something I want to stack against. Core stack targets: Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager, Ty France, and Luis Torrens. Tossing a cheaper 2B option like Abraham Toro would help round out a nice five-person spot.
Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the value hitters are players under $3500 on DK and under $3300 on FD—just a step below my cash players. Use these players to smash into your lineup when you need to save some salary.
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)