DFS Daily Breakdown – May 4th

Happy Wednesday (and May the Fourth be with you)! We’ve got a smaller seven-game slate with very few SP options, which will lead to a condensed roster%. Furthermore, when the pitching options aren’t ideal, this leads to offenses with robust run projections. You’ll see what I mean when you gloss over the Implied Run Totals section.

So, what gets left for us? Well, offenses that could score well and a chalk SPS. So, what’s that mean for building lineups? My advice is not to entirely shy away from the chalk (especially since we only have seven games) and look to get different elsewhere. Possibly, stack the part of the back end of an excellent stack option.

Baseball is a game of high variance, and today’s as good as any to try something new. The galaxy depends on it. Good luck!

 

 

• MIN @ BAL – Camden Yards is proving to be more of a pitcher’s park this season. With one of the lower IRT of the slate, it’ll not be easy to stack either team. I suggest pulling one-offs like Byron Buxton or Max Kepler instead. Also, there could be rain to begin the game.
• NYY @ TOR – With Cortes being one of the top SPs on the slate, you won’t want a Toronto stack. The next time he allows more than two runs in an outing will be the first of the season. On the flip side, the Yankees will be very popular…and rightfully so.

 

• LAA @ BOS – This isn’t a bad game to stack from, especially in any GPP. If all the roster% sways to Coors Field or the Yankees, we could see a solid offense like either one going unnoticed. Furthermore, that puts both offenses in play for building any lineups.
• CHW @ CHC – The Cubs shouldn’t garner any attention today as they match up against one of the best SPs on the slate. Additionally, stacking the White Sox may not be terrific either since they’ll face Kyle Hendricks, who usually does a good job limiting quality contact.

 

• CIN @ MIL – Milwaukee is in play for building stacks since they match up against a weaker SP in a small slate. Furthermore, the salaries are pretty inexpensive, and you’ll be able to pay up at SP. The Reds should get zero attention because it’s a depleted offense that is under-performing and faces a solid SP.
• WAS @ COL – This will be the game with most of the chalk plays. Both SPs are not great, and the park likes to allow for balls in play. However, it’s a small slate, and getting some of the chalk is possible; get different elsewhere (like SPs or roster back end of either batting order). Lastly, the weather doesn’t look good.

 

• SFG @ LAD – We can’t pull too much away with no line out. Although, if WAS@COL gets a PPD, we could see this game being a massive pivot for chalk since it’s the only game played later.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

The pitching doesn’t have several great options, and quite a few viable arms have challenging matchups. Due to this constraint, the colored tiers are slightly different. The Green Tier is our SP1 option, with the Yellow Tier as our SP2. Usually, the Red Tier is our GPP option with a higher variance. However, the Red Tier is the AVOID tier.

 

GREEN Tier 

Lucas Giolito looks like the safest option on the slate. He draws a solid matchup against a mediocre Cubs offense. Additionally, in his three games started, Giolito leads all SPs with a 14.14 K/9, and the Cubs’ K-rate is slightly over 24%. Lastly, when a team draws an IRT under 3, we need to consider that SP. He should be a heavy favorite in all cash games.

Freddy Peralta is another SP1 with a terrific matchup. I mean, c’mon, the Reds’ offense is a disaster. Against RHP, they have the fourth-worst K-rate (25.3%) and lousy .271 wOBA. Cincinnati has a 71 wRC+ and a bottom-feeder in runs scored. Lastly, they’ll be without Joey Votto and Jonathan India, to make matters even worse.

 

YELLOW Tier

Dylan Bundy is back in Baltimore, except they’ve moved the fence back this time. Bundy was off to a terrific start until his last outing, where he gave up a pair of HRs and six earned runs. I bet many used him on that day as well. However, today a few things are working in his favor. First, Baltimore isn’t a terrific offense as their wRC+ against RHP is 15% worse than the MLB average. Also, they’re striking out over 24%. Today’s a good spot for Bundy to remind his former team what they lost.

On the surface, Reid Detmers doesn’t look like a good play. Although, his 5.19 ERA is somewhat misleading as five of his earned runs came in his second start. We see a 3.76 xFIP and K/9 that’s slightly better than Bundy under the hood. Furthermore, it’s a ground ball 43% of the time when he allows contact. Lastly, some may panic when you see he’s facing the Red Sox. However, Boston has been putrid vs. southpaws (.094 ISO, .273 wOBA, and 74 wRC+).

 

RED Tier

I’m not throwing shade at any of these SPs. Heck, Cortes has been performing at an ace level. However, I don’t want to roster a pitcher whose primary weapon is deception on a small slate. Oof! Not to mention, his salary is far too high for my liking. Sure, if he were pitching against a weaker opponent, I would have been on board.

The warmest game on the slate is SFG@LAD. This isn’t the main reason I’d avoid either SP, but it plays a role. Although, the main reason is the matchup. The Giants are more than serviceable against RHP, and the Dodgers are loaded with firepower. Remember, it’s a small slate, and there is a lot of lousy pitching to stack against.

 

Hitting Stacks

 

Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals 

• I’ll reiterate it; this will be the massive chalk game. But we’ve got a small slate, and you could make this a smaller secondary stack. If I had to lean one way, it would be towards getting more Colorado since Patrick Corbin has had such a difficult time with RHB lately. If either of the two SPs will shut down one of the offenses, it’ll be Gomber since he generates a decent amount of ground balls and showcases over a 22% K-rate vs. LHB and RHB.
• Rockies’ Core Stack Targets: C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk, and Elias Díaz.
• Nationals’ Core Stack Targets: Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Nelson Cruz.

 

New York Yankees (vs. Yusei Kikuchi)

• Kikuchi might be the best SP to stack against on the slate. Over the past two seasons, he has had an 11% walk rate and .220 ISO vs. RHB. What makes things even better for stacking the Yankees is the lineup is full of right-handed bats with power. Furthermore, Aaron Judge looks like one of the better plays, which will make him very chalky. So, if you’re putting him in your stacks, you’ll need to get different elsewhere.
• Yankees’ Core Stack Targets: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Josh Donaldson.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Alex Wood)

• With many eyes looking elsewhere, the Dodgers might be a sneakier stack than you think. The field’s attention will be on the Coors Field game and the Yankees. However, the Dodgers are a premier offense, and anytime we can get their stack at a depressed roster%, take it! Now, don’t get me wrong—Alex Wood is still a very good pitcher, giving up a few HRs this season. Is this a sound strategy every day (to stack against a good pitcher)? Not so much, but on a smaller slate, we need to think outside the box a little in GPPs.
• Dodgers’ Core Stack Targets: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Will Smith.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the value hitters are players under $3500 on DK and under $3300 on FD—just a step below my cash players. Use these players to smash into your lineup when you need to save some salary.

 

 

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