DFS Daily Breakdown – July 25

Swan breaks down the DFS slate for Monday.

Happy Sunday! Today is a bit of a rare one as we get a ton of day baseball. The quick turnaround in start times might play havoc on some of the lineups. So, keep an eye out early and check your builds before the 1:05 EST start time. Yes, we start that early today for the main slate. Additionally, the weather will be a big concern in several areas-especially in the northeastern regions ([email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]). Included in that, we also have some concerns in the midwest as well ([email protected], [email protected]). Buckle up; it’s going to be a fun one today!

 

Implied Run Totals

 

With a glance at the implied run totals(IRT) across the slate, one thing jumps out – OFFENSE! Today looks to be one of those days where HRs are everywhere, and pitching will be a disaster. There are many teams over five IRT (PHI, CIN, BOS, TB, DET, KC, and CHC).

 

Starting Pitchers

 

Listed first is my cash game SPs, the safest of options with the ability to return a solid amount of DFS points:

Pitching Matchups (Last 30 Days)

Only two aces will be in the deck today. That makes them very chalky when it comes to all formats (cash or GPP). However, when you glance around at the salaries for the mid-tier SPs, I would still highly recommend playing one of these pitchers as my SP1. Additionally, both harness the extra K upside to make them worth their price tag. Don’t get too cute; start here with your pitching.

 

Listed first is my GPP SPs; these options offer high upside with a lower price point:

Pitching Matchups (Last 30 Days)

Pitcher Matchup ISO wRC+ K%
Sonny Gray STL vs. RHP .156 100 20.1%
Tarik Skubal KC vs. LHP .169 100 21.7%
Caleb Smith CHC vs. LHP .141 98 25.5%

 

As far as the mid-tier pitching is concerned, I am trying to stick to SPs with a higher upside in Ks today. Caleb Smith remains a value SP2 with a decent chance of racking up the Ks. The lowly Cubs offense is wishy-washy at best and doesn’t mind taking strike three. If the fastball is back at a decent velocity, he could put up a huge day. I’ll also mention that Skubal and Gray have fair matchups that will play favorably as your SP2. Keep your pitching pretty close to the vest today and look to get different in the bats.

There are so many SPs to avoid strictly, even though they seem roster-able on the surface. A couple with low strikeout upsides are Zack Greinke and Ryan Yarbrough; there isn’t enough meat on the bone at those prices to make it worth paying the price. Continuing in the avoid category, there are a plethora of pitchers with a huge chance to bust due to matchup concerns: Zach Thompson, John Means, and Triston McKenzie. All of that trio is facing off against teams with ISOs and wRC+ that send me screaming to stay away from. Lastly, I am fading away from Touki Toussaint. His fastball was lucky in his previous time out and remained a pitch that he can’t command. He is an interesting SP that could shove again, but I think the wheels will fall off against Philly.

 

Hitter Stacks

 

There is so much suspect pitching on the slate; grabbing a few stacks with different outcomes should be helpful. Also, it allows you to spread the risk in your bankroll.

Hitting Matchups (Last 30 Days)

Washington Nationals

  • It was time to pick on John Means, a solid SP, to begin the season under all accounts. However, he has a massive flaw that we love to target in DFS – allowing HRs. Means has allowed two HRs in six starts this year, including his previous start after returning from the IL. Additionally, Camden Yards is a hitters haven for HRs and scoring. Focus on the usual core in Washington: Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Ryan Zimmerman.

 

New York Yankees

  • I get it; the Yanks bats have been quiet lately. Although, they are not quiet hitters, and most have enormous barrel rates that could lead to a gigantic afternoon. The 4.9 IRT might help keep the roster% down a bit too, which is a nice bonus for GPP players. Lastly, the salaries are low enough to get whatever high-end pitching you want in your build. Stick to the top of the lineup for a core: D.J. LaMehieu, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gio Urshela.

 

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Touki came out the last outing and dazzled, or did he? The breaking balls were enough to keep batters off-balance, but the fastball was everywhere and anywhere. The Phillies are a much more patient lineup than the Padres, and if Touki has to rely on the fastball for strikes, it’ll be game over. I see a game with Touki throwing many walks and eventually giving up big damage from the long ball. This is a good spot for Brad Miller to sneak into the lineup as he mashes RHP. Toss him in your core of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Jean Segura.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the value hitters are meant to be players under $3300 on DK and under $3100 on FD—just a step below my cash players.

Value Plays

Good luck!

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Dave Swan

Dave Swan is an avid Chicago Cubs fan that enjoys all aspects of fantasy baseball-especially DFS. He would trade his right arm for a GIF library of Greg Maddux pitches. Swan's baseball thoughts are available at @davithius.

Account / Login
>