DFS Daily Breakdown – July 21

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Wednesday.

Happy Wednesday! Before we begin, I want to add a heads up, I’m on vacation and doing all of this research Tuesday night. So if the lines change or someone gets scratched, I apologize, but I likely won’t get to update it before the breakdown comes out. I will do my best to leave a comment here or on Twitter, letting you know if anything major changes in my process.

Today, both DraftKings and FanDuel feature 8-game main slates starting at 7:05. As of this writing (Tuesday night), there doesn’t appear to be any weather issues in the forecast. Thank goodness, because we’re already working with a tough 8-game slate. I’ll be straight up with you; the pitching matchups on this slate are tough. Let’s take a look at the Implied Run Totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

 

Implied Run Totals

 

We have just two teams with implied totals below 4.0 runs. Because it’s a short slate, we’re going to have to open up a little when it comes to our pitching options. More on that in a minute. From a stacks perspective, the Blue Jays are the clear front runners, with the Astros and Yankees not far behind them. We might get a little lucky in terms of value with the Rangers and Tigers, who are just below that magic 5.0 run total. Let’s take a look at our pitching options to see if we can get anyone to pop for our cash game lineups.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

With just two teams sporting implied totals below 4.0, we have to expand our horizons to find some decent pitchers. I’m pushing my boundaries all the way to 4.5, and I’m including Jordan Lyles and Matt Manning in our research to see if we can find some sneaky value. Let’s break down the matchups:

 

Pitching Matchups (Last 30 Days)

 

That Matt Manning sneaky value, no thank you. Manning has struggled mightily with the long ball both in the majors and minors this year. He’s allowed a combined 14 homers in just 54 innings thrown. If anything, I’m sprinkling a little cash on Joey Gallo to hit a long ball.

From this list, I’m immediately cutting Manning, Robbie Ray, and Asher Wojciechowski. I was going to throw Kyle Hendricks in that list, too, because of the lack of strikeout upside, but we all know he’s capable of a gem, making him in my GPP consideration pile. That leaves six pitchers in consideration – Lance McCullers, Jr. ($10,100 DK, $10,200 FD), Adam Wainwright ($9,300 DK, $8,800 FD), Dylan Cease ($8,600 DK, $8,600 FD), Julio Urias ($9,700 DK, $9,100 FD), Erik Fedde ($8,100 DK, $6,500 FD), and Jordan Lyles ($6,600 DK, $7,000 FD).

I’m locking in McCullers as my SP1. The strikeout upside is there, and the Cleveland offense is not. That was the easy part. The tough part is who to pair him with. Of the remaining five, the pitcher I like the least is Fedde. I feel he’s over-priced, and if I’m in that range for my SP2, I’m just going to pay up to Cease. Urias is in a similar situation. I really like Wainwright, and since Urias is priced above him, I’d rather pivot to the cheaper pitcher. That at least narrows it down to three options for our SP2, and I rank them Wainwright, Lyles, Cease.

 

Hitter Stacks

 

Three teams are going to be my focus in stacks—Blue Jays, Astros, and Yankees. There are some other teams that I’ll look to add some value from, like the Phillies and Rangers. Let’s break down their matchups and see if one stands out over the other:

 

Hitting Matchups (Last 30 Days)

 

The clear odd man out here is the Astros, while I’ll favor the Phillies over the Rangers for value. The Blue Jays are going to be my main focus as I try and figure out how to fill in a full 5-man stack. The good news is outside of Vladimir Guerrero, Jr ($6,000 DK, $4,500 FD), Bo Bichette ($5,100 DK, $3,600 FD), and Marcus Semien ($5,700 DK, $4,000 FD), there’s a decent amount of value to be had. Teoscar Hernández ($4,300 DK, $3,400 FD), Randall Grichuk ($4,300 DK, $3,300 FD), and Lourdes Gurriel ($3,800 DK, $3,400 FD) look particularly tasty.

The Yankees are dealing with a COVID outbreak that has them sporting a mini-AAA lineup. If I’m rostering Yankees, it’s likely in a pivot move from the Blue Jays as it’ll be tough to fit in Vlad with DJ LeMahieu ($4,600 DK, $3,300 FD) or Giancarlo Stanton ($4,600 DK, $3,500 FD).

In terms of the value from the Phillies, I love Jean Segura ($3,400 DK, $2,900 FD) up at the top of the lineup. And then try not to laugh as we add near-min priced Travis Jankowski ($2,200 DK, $2,300 FD). Over the last 30 days, Jankowski is batting over .400 against righties, making him a “yes, please” for my lineups.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. I’m taking a page out of my colleague Dave Swan’s (@davithius) book and provided my favorite value play from each position:

 

Value Plays

 

If you stuck around, here’s the lineup I plan on using in cash games today:

 

Cash Game Lineup

 

One 2v2 pivot I also considered was going Lyles and Stanton over Wainwright and Jankowski.

Good luck today!

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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