DFS Daily Breakdown – August 4

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Wednesday.

Happy Wednesday! Both DraftKings and FanDuel feature 11-game main slates starting at 7:05. As of this writing, the only rain in the forecast is in New York for the Yankees/Orioles game, but it looks like it should hold off until after the game. This seems weird, but this is the first time in a while that Coors is on the slate for me. Let’s take a look at the Implied Run Totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

Implied Run Totals

We have seven teams with an implied total below 4.0 runs, with two additional teams below 4.2 runs. I love when we have a decent amount of options for our starting pitchers. Stacks-wise, there are eight teams with implied totals above 4.9 runs. The Yankees and the Rockies clear 6.0 runs and will likely be our focus for the main stack. I like that we have some contenders for our secondary stack also. Let’s take a look at our pitching options to see if we can get anyone to pop for our cash game lineups.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

There are a lot of names and stats to get to in both the pitching and hitting sections. I’ll do my best to break out what I’m planning on doing, but if you have any questions, don’t be afraid to reach out! Let’s break down the matchups:

Pitching Matchups (Last 30 Days)

Straight off the bat, I’ll say, I love seeing Carlos Carrasco ($8,500 DK, $8,200 FD) back out on the field, but I’m fading him today. He went just four innings in his first start of the year, and until we see him fully stretched out, I can not trust him in cash games. Secondly, I’m so excited to watch Max Scherzer ($9,100 DK, $10,500 FD) in his Dodgers debut, but he’s a clear GPP play for me. By far the toughest matchup of the higher-priced pitchers, but there’s no arguing that Scherzer is capable of breaking the slate.

Another pitcher I’m not touching is Eduardo Rodríguez ($9,000 DK, $7,600 FD). The Tigers have been decent of late, and if their team total is sitting at 3.5 when the line comes out, I’ll likely be putting a little cash on the over.

I think this is going to be a “pay up for both pitchers” kind of day because I’m not seeing a cheaper option for our  SP2 that I love. From the table, I like Lucas Giolito ($10,600 DK, $9,200 FD), Shohei Ohtani ($9,500 DK, $10,700 FD), Kevin Gausman ($9,700 DK, $10,000 FD), and Jameson Taillon ($10,200 DK, $8,000 FD) in that order. The problem will be finding viable stacks that don’t break the bank.

Finally, I’m going to say this once, and then I’m going to go purge in the bathroom and forget about it—I will have one cheap GPP lineup with Matt Harvey ($5,300 DK, $6,700 FD). His last 18.1 innings thrown have been scoreless while issuing one walk. While his average velocity hasn’t changed much during those three starts, he has increased the usage of his changeup to 16-19%, the most he’s used the pitch all year. I’m going to ask for earmuffs from the Yankees fans for this next point. Over the last 30 days, the Yankees rank dead last in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO versus right-handed pitchers. Things do not look better when we look at the last 14 or last 7 days either. Last 7 days against RHP – 32 wRC+, .043 ISO, .214 wOBA, and a 28.7% strikeout rate. Now that I’ve written more about Harvey than literally any other player I’ve covered this year, I should probably retire.

 

Hitter Stacks

 

With wanting to pay up for pitching today, we’re going to have to get creative with our stacks. Luckily for us, we have a decent amount of options. Let’s take a look at the teams that have implied totals north of 4.9 runs to see if any of them pop:

Hitting Matchups (Last 30 Days)

It’s interesting to me that the teams with the highest team totals also have the worst stats over the last 30 days. Clearly, that didn’t matter last night as the Yankees and Rockies combined for 26 runs. It’s crazy to me how cheap some of these Rockies players are. I know both teams are not great, but we want to stack Coors when we can, and only Trevor Story ($5,200 DK, $4,200 FD) and Wilson Contreras ($5,000 DK, $3,700 FD) are priced above $5k. I’ll be trying to get as many cheap Coors bats into my lineup as I can, and I’m pretty sure I can build a “game stack” lineup that goes with two higher-priced starting pitchers. There’s just so much value in Rafael Ortega ($2,500 DK, $3,700 FD), Ian Happ ($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD), Sam Hilliard ($2,400 DK, $2,600 FD), and Ryan McMahon ($3,600 DK, $3,900 FD).

If you’re looking to ride the hot Yankees from last night, you’ll have to get really creative as all of the bats at the top are priced at $4,900 or above. The one value that I like from the Bronx Bombers is Giancarlo Stanton ($4,200 DK, $3,400 FD).

Like the Yankees, the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and White Sox are also pretty tough to stack if you’re paying up for pitchers, but there is a little value to be had. César Hernández ($3,700 DK, $3,100 FD) and Corey Dickerson ($3,400 DK, $2,000 FD) have yet to have their prices adjusted since joining their new clubs.

Finally, the Red Sox, Giants, and Nationals also have some decent value in Jarren Duran ($3,400 DK, $2,500 FD), Alex Dickerson ($3,100 DK, $2,100 FD), and Yadiel Hernández ($2,400 DK, $2,500 FD). Like our previous group, I’m more likely to use a cheap one-off to fill a spot in my lineup than to stack the team.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters on today’s slate. I’m taking a page out of my colleague Dave Swan’s (@davithius) book and provided my favorite value play from each position:

Value Plays

If you stuck around, here’s the lineup I plan on using in cash games today:

Cash Game Lineup

There you have it. Coors game-stack with two higher-priced pitchers. When I was building it, I was wondering at first if I could even do it, and then I actually liked it.

Good luck today!

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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