I have been a bit worried about Dallas Keuchel lately, but he’s stepped up his game in the last three starts as he’s faced the Mariners, ChiSox, and went 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks tonight the Rangers in Arlington. He’ll be saved for the playoffs now, ending his year with a 2.90 ERA, 7.72 K/9, 2.90 BB/9 and a 6.3 IPS. It’s good, but it screams more 2014 Keuchel than 2015 Keuchel, i.e. finesse arm without the consistent strikeout upside nor deep game threat and that’s scary for 2018. Yes, he was cruising at the beginning, got hurt, and his second half brought him down considerably, but should we really believe that he can be that first half self for an entire year? Remember, his 2016 was marred in the second half as well, albeit because he was hiding an injury. I know what this all sounds like and I do consider Keuchel Top 25, I just can’t see him being Cy Young Keuchel again – I think that was a magical career year – which means he’s not worth the high cost.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Kevin Gausman – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. What is the deal, Gaus? You allowed just 1 ER in four of your previous 5, but have had two clunkers of 5 ER and now this 6 ER blowup in three of the last seven. Not cool at all. We were talking on Twitter about his performances being closely related to the catcher behind the plate, which can definitely be a major part of this, though I’ve been linking it to two elements: First-Strike rate and Splitters thrown. I want to see the FS mark around 30% and FPS strike rate around 65-70%. In this game? 20% and 60%. That’s not prime Gausman at all. I’ll probably be looking into it more a bit this week, but for now I’m hesitant to take a chance on him next season. He’s simply too hit-or-miss without a clear path to a consistent ceiling for me to get on board for a full year.
Tyler Anderson – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. You probably forgot about Tyler as he missed nearly three months of the season before returning on the 11th. Now he’s had four starts totaling just 3 ER and this is kinda ridiculous, especially when he had a 5.24 ERA entering today. Now, I’m not saying that I think Anderson is hot now and will carry that into 2018, but I think he is closer to the 3.54 ERA man than the 4.81 ERA guy he is after today.
Alex Wood – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. I remember the talk back in June about Wood’s expected SP rank off the board in 2018 being easily Top 20. Now we’re wondering if anyone would chase him Top 30. I probably won’t, not with his velocity down to…90.2mph tonight?! Jeeeeeeez. Yeah, I don’t want to touch this next year at all. Fine, if he falls a ton but I doubt it. I’m looking forward to the angry people next week labeling him as an ace, which I totally get! 2.72 ERA, 8.92 K/9, 2.25 BB/9…that should speak to a better rank, right? Sorry, I feel he had a career year based on the spiked velocity of 93+ and seeing a clear decline mixed with missing time due to injury are major flags for me.
J.A. Happ – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks. If this is Happ’s final start, he leaves with a 3.53 ERA, 8.79 K/9, and 2.85 BB/9 to his name. Those are much better numbers than I expected in March and Happ impressed me plenty. Sure, he had his tough times, gave you only a 5.8 IPS and missed about eight starts along the way, but he helped more than hurt and I’ll definitely be considering him past pick 200 if I need another arm. That’s a Toby alright.
Jordan Montgomery – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Oh Bear, I can’t wait to draft you past pick 200 as you round out my staff. I CAN’T WAIT.
James Paxton – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. I have to say, Pax looked pretty solid tonight. Plenty of well-located heaters and while he did allow a pair of HRs, I think it gave everyone the feeling that he’ll be A-OK for 2018. Well, outside of his ridiculous injury history that is sure to prevent him from ever having a 200 IP season. It’s really sad because he’s just so good.
Jake Thompson – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. He’s fresh off a 1 ER game against the Dodgers and was able to spin it again. Good for him, no way I trusted this to happen as Bryce Harper returned to the Nationals lineup.
Jason Vargas – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s so boring Vargas, but I’m glad you did your job against the Tigers. Thanks.
Trevor Williams – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. If you think this is anywhere close to a regular occurrence, note that Williams has fanned at least six just three times in his 15 starts. He is holding a near 3.60 ERa in that time with a BB/9 above 3.70 as well. Unfortunately, I just don’t see him panning out as a guy that you want to target at all.
Bartolo Colon – 1.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. This wasn’t a serious injury for Paul Funyun, as he left the game with an illness. This can’t be the final start of Colon’s career. PLEASE.
Chris Sale – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Uggggggh. I guess we have to give the Cy Young to Kluber now, don’t we. There are few winds behind this Sale boat.
R.A. Dickey – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Speaking of which, Dickey told me that he’s excited to be considered for the Cy Young this year. I’m sure you are buddy. Don’t Trust A Knuckleballer.
Carlos Martinez – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Should CarMart be a Top 20 arm next season? 3,63 ERA, 3.90 FIP, though a 16.6% HR/FB rate compared to an 11.5% career mark suggests there is some regression coming. His 9.46 K/9 en route to 211 strikeouts (25.3% K rate!) is certainly a major plus, while lowering his walk rate to 8%. I don’t think there is much debate about who he is, but if these numbers dictate someone that you should be picking in the top 20 SP off the board. I’m inclined to say yes…? I mean, you know I won’t as this tier will be a long one and Carlos is sure to be the first among the group to go, but it’s a fun discussion.
Dinelson Lamet – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 6 BBs, 7 Ks. Lamet, darling, six walks is not going to do the trick. I don’t care if it came with 7 Ks, it’s killing us. Lamet could be a little bit of a sleeper next season given his massive strikeout ability – 10.94 K/9 across 21 starts – though the 4.25 BB/9 and 4.34 FIP are sure to keep his ADP out of the Top 175. We’ll be having a chat and I wonder how much different he is over someone like Robbie…
Robbie Ray – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. …Ray. This may conclude Ray’s season as he’s likely the Game 1 starter for the potential NLDS series if Greinke does his work in the WC matchup. I have a lot to say about Ray and his 2.86 ERA, 12.18 K/9, and 3.99 BB/9 that I’m sure to have a massive rant or two later in the off-season, or even next week when I come out with my super early SP rankings for 2018. I can’t tell you that I’ve fully made up my mind yet, but I am sure not to be the guy that is high on him among the crowd.
Daniel Mengden – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. I wrote about Mengden after his last start, as he had 16 straight scoreless streak, and he couldn’t keep it up against the Mariners. Not too surprising, but I was hoping he had one more in him so I could get above .500…take your silly mustache and leave. That’s mean Nick. Is it because you’re jealous of the stache? …Yes. Streamer Record 83-59-17.
Anibal Sanchez – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. You know, I’ll take this. I could see people rolling with Anibal given his recent success and this certainly continues it. The problem now is that this was the Royals and the Playoff bound Twins are next. Can’t say I want to put my eggs in Anibal’s basket on Sunday. That sounds very sensual. No comment.
Jake Arrieta – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Blegh. Part of me still feels Arrieta is Top 20 entering next season. Another has me feeling #25 or so. This will be a fun weekend.
Parker Bridwell – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Meh. Bridwell got the ChiSox and could only muster 1 strikeout, but that WHIP is good and it’s a Quality Start. Meh.
Zach Davies – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks. Davies, really? REALLY? Not a single strikeout? I know the Reds are good n all, but HAISTFMFWT?
Gio Gonzalez – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 7 Ks. The Ks are back! …and the walks are back. Dang.
Rafael Montero – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. It was a VVPQS with just 3 strikeouts and you wonder why I didn’t choose Montero for the stream. Well, okay, it was better than Mengden BUT NOT BY MUCH.
Deck McGuire – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. I watched this one and even though it came with 95mph velocity, there’s nothing else here to get excited about. Just a Cup of Schmo. Womp womp.
Blake Snell – 1.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks. I really wanted to believe that Snell had turned a corner. I really did. I can see him getting sleeper posts next season as people ignore this final start, but this makes it really really hard for me to buy the storyline that he’ll be fixed come April.
Cole Hamels – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. Hamels had to host the Astros in Arlington, what else did you expect?
Jose Urena – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Does anyone else get the feeling that pitchers set for major regression don’t gradually perform poorly but instead suddenly have a massive clunker? I guess it may have been the Vargas Rule here, but y’all know I didn’t like Urena. But Nick, this was in Coors! We obviously sat him. Oh…okay that’s a good point. FINE. Still hate Urena though.
Chris Volstad – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Yep, that’s Volstad alright.
Matt Moore – 1.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks. At least Moore won’t have a Top 60 ADP this year. Wait, that’s not a good thing. Dang.
Sean Newcomb vs. New York Mets – With the way Lopez is pitching (4 total strikeouts in four games!) and Richards now owned in most leagues, Newcomb gets the call against the lackluster Mets.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Luiz Gohara vs. Miami Marlins – Gohara did well against the Phils and I don’t love this one, but there aren’t any other options to turn to. That includes Tyler Skaggs against the Mariners, who I just don’t trust.