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Calling It Marco-Phony

What a day for Marco Estrada as he went 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks against the all-mighty Red Sawx. He had his no-hit bid broken up in the...

What a day for Marco Estrada as he went 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks against the all-mighty Red Sawx. He had his no-hit bid broken up in the 8th with a solo shot, then came in for the 9th where he gave up a double (that scored) before being pulled.  Way to go and double his ERA in two unnecessary ninth inning pitches!  Anyway, I have Estrada hanging in the 60s, which is probably a little low and should change tomorrow, though the callings for him to be Top 50 are out of place. The guy is set for major regression in the ERA department, and even if he doesn’t fall all the way down to his 4.68 xFIP, he could easily go 4.00 ERA the rest of the way and that’s not cool, especially when I see him going around 7.25 K/9 the rest of way as he currently holds a 3.50 BB/9.  It’s not bad, and he should be started for the most part on your teams as he’s a strong Toby candidate, I simply see people praising Estrada like he’s golden without the understanding of his career low 7.3% HR/FB rate that’s 3.5 points lower than his 10.8% career rate.

Let’s see what every other SP did yesterday:

Jose Fernandez – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 14 Ks. Aces gonna ace. JoFer managed to raise his already absurd 12.77 K/9 to 13.26 after this outing. Oh, and without a single walk so his BB/9 is juuust above 3.00.  It really is too bad that he won’t gather 200 innings this year and will most likely be shut down for the playoffs.  Speaking of which, we’re planning on publishing a mega article this week outlining all the pitchers who may be shutdown come September.  Stay tuned for that, it’ll be cool n stuff.

Corey Kluber – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Okay, I think we’ve got the Klubster locked in now. No need to be stupid and give up like six ER next time out, right Corey?  RIGHT?

Jon Gray – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks. Our Call boy was spectacular, earning double-digit Ks for the third time this season. Gray’s other really really good start this year came in Petco against the Padres. Where was this one played? …in Petco against the Padres. Don’t put too much weight into this, as Gray is a solid pitcher outside of Coors and against average opponents. That’s like 30% of his starts, which doesn’t warrant a long time roster situation. Feel it out week to week, though his next three starts should be good to go (home vs Pads, @MIA, @NYY).

Matt Harvey – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks.  Oh boy, where do I rank Harvey tomorrow? Part of me wants to put him around #15, which is silly but kinda how I feel. He’ll probably sit just shy of the Top 20, which is still pretty solid given his struggles.

Derek Holland – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. That’s four straight 2 ER or fewer starts from Dutch, though the memories of the Dutch Invasion hasn’t disappeared qute yet. Still, this makes it okay to stream him in future outings.

Hisashi Iwakuma – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. FINALLY Iwakuma gives us a start worthy of his name. Don’t trust it yet though, he allowed 3 or 4 ER in each of his previous five starts, making it tough to believe he’s turned a corner so soon.

Justin Verlander – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Verlander is rolling, earning a 2.01 ERA, 10.48 K/9, 2.01 BB/9 over his last 44.2 IP in last six starts including this one. You can thank an improved Slider that is starting to be labeled as a Cutter, getting increased vertical and horizontal movement. All praise Jimmy V!  Why do you call him Jimmy? His name is Justin. I DON’T CARE.

Patrick Corbin – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Look at that! Corbin actually benefited any owner crazy enough to roll with him today. Whatever, still not trusting him for quite a while.

Aaron Nola – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks.  Aces gonna ace. Well, with a WHIP that is unsettling at 1.67, but whatever. Still love Easy A.

CC Sabathia – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 6 BBs, 5 Ks. Now we’re up to five starts in a row of 2 ER or fewer from CC…but do I really want to roll him out against Detroit?  Ehhhh, I’ll certainly have him as a streamer against the Twins, though.

Carlos Martinez – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Solid CMart, especially against the Giants. I currently have him in the mid 40s, which sounds about right given his annoying low floor and inability to string together some top notch starts.

Lance McCullers – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks. Yep, that’s a McCullers start.  I think I was a bit too high on Lance last week and he’ll drop a little tomorrow. He has super tantalizing upside, but those walks are going to be an issue and he’s not a guy that goes deep into games often.

Kevin Gausman – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Solid Gaus, which is why I see you as Top 40.

Sonny Gray – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Hey, Gray is back! His breaking stuff looked much better than before and he’ll be jumping up super far this week as I didn’t expect him to return so soon.  Probably late 40s or so.

Gerrit Cole – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Ugh, this is such a Cole start.  Sooooo boring.

Jake Arrieta – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks. This was Arrieta’s first loss since July of last year when the Cubs were no-hit, and he also held a negative FIP for the day as he had a .900 BABIP…but still allowed just 3 ER.  That’s our boy.

Tyler Duffey – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. It’s was time to jump off the Duffey ship last week and this start against the Rays isn’t enough to sway those thoughts. Sure, eight Ks is great but if it comes with a poor WHIP/ERA, then it’s doing more harm than good against a weak team.

Scott Kazmir – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Meh, at least he didn’t fall all the way off after his 12 K outing.

Jake Peavy – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Go away Peavy. No one cares.

Hector Santiago – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. I don’t care what velocity trends Santiago has moving forward, it’s getting to a point that we won’t know what he’ll be featuring on a given night, making it a poor thing to leave up to chance.  Unfortunately I don’t have one of the Harvey Dent QuartersTM to help me out, so I wouldn’t be rolling with Santiago any time soon.

Drew Smyly – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Yeah, he’s just going to keep falling and it hurts every time.

Eduardo Rodriguez – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 0 Ks.  Speaking of guys that I was too high on, I maaaay be lowering Eduardo slightly tomorrow. I know I made that ranking stating that it was ignoring his first two starts since they came against the O’s and Blue Jays, but I watched those outings and his slide piece didn’t look to be in the place that I expected.  He’s going to have more trouble in the short term, which means he should be hanging in the 60s, not the 50s.

Chris Young – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. If you were excited about Young returning to the Royals staff, I’m jealous of your ability to find pleasure it dark places.

Jon Moscot – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. There’s nothing quite like having an 8.02 ERA after five starts.

Jose Quintana – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Just his third non-QS all season, and expect it to come back next time. Still love me some Jose. Is there a starter named Jose I don’t like?

Tanner Roark – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Here I was prepared to do a big article about Roark’s newfound success and of course he had to falter against a super weak team like the Reds.  Welp, he still has a super good schedule in the first half and I’m on board.

Wily Peralta – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Stop being so Wily!

Luis Perdomo – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Just his second start all year as he’s primarily a reliever, and it went as well as you’d expect given that you probably didn’t know who he was.

Matt Wisler – 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. If you started him, I hope you’re Wisler now.

Today’s Streamers

James Paxton vs. Cleveland Indians – I don’t love this start, but there really isn’t much else to turn to + if Paxton brings the heat he had last time out, it could be a super fun time.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Adam Conley vs. Minnesota Twins – Conley is your best option as he sits under 20% owned in ESPN leagues.  The other considerable option is Sean Manaea against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer 

Archie Bradley vs. Tampa Bay Rays – He’s the hot hand and you may as well keep rolling with him. Other options are Chase Anderson against the A’s for the discount in you, and if you really need another guy, there’s Doug Fister against the Rangers, which could work out but I’d avoid in general.

Game of the Day

Michael Fulmer vs. Toronto Blue Jays – I really want to see if Fulmer can be effective against a tough offense, unlike the three weak opponents he’s had recently.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

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