What a night for Joe Biagini who went 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks against the Orioles last night. It’s been a tumultuous season for Biagini as he’s bounced around from the pen to the minors, and as a starter he’s had some success mixed with plenty of clunkers. If you’ve been following the site, you’ll know that I do believe in the skill set of Biagaini – Fastball at 94-95 that sinks a ton, Changeup that moves even more, and a Curveball with a boatload of drop. (Yes, he features a Cutter in there two but I want that to stop being thrown all together as it’s terrible so let’s move past that.) I still firmly believe that over a large enough sample, Biagini can overcome his horrid 62.5% LOB Rate, letting his 57.7% groundball rate and 8.00+ K/9 shine. I’m not talking Top 25 arm here, but someone that you’re happy to have as your #5/6 through the season. If you’re reading this Toronto – I know you are – please let him start in 2018 out of the gate. Anyway, the bad news here is that he gets the Sawx, Twins, and Yanks in four of five final starts and I don’t have the confidence to start him in any. So let’s just watch Biagini the rest of the year and hope he defies the odds and has success, allowing us to get a possible steal in the 2018 draft.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Blake Snell – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Last night was the night of starters, with way too many arms having successful games. Snell was one of them as well…though a one strikeout game is really weird to see. Regardless, this was his fifth straight game of 6.0+ IP after doing it just twice in his first fourteen starts of the season. Hmmmm. I know I should be buying into this more, but I just can’t. He used a ton of Changeups here as batters put the ball in play before he could attempt to put them away, which seems to be the lifeblood of his starts. I dunno, I don’t see myself believing in Snell until he throws a ton of breaking balls for strikes early in counts and we’re not there yet. I don’t blame you for rolling the dice here, though. You can do worse.
Mike Clevinger – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Clev clev clev. There have been many doubters of your ability this year (you know who you are) and now you’ve had shutout performances in three of your last four starts. Yes, this was the Upton/JD-less Tigers after facing the Royals prior, but guess what. Your next three starts are the ChiSox, Tigers, Royals. YES PLEASE.
Kevin Gausman – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. 2/3 first pitch strikes paired with 69% strikes overall and 30% Splitters makes me a happy man. I think you’re safe rolling with him all five of his remaining outings (@CLE, @TOR, BOS, TBR, @TBR)
Clayton Kershaw – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Aces gonna ace. The King is back.
John Lackey – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Lackey’s schedule is comfortable to say the least, getting the Braves last night and Pirates/Mets up next. I’m game.
Jimmy Nelson – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 11 Ks. Soooo I think we’ve really hammered home the fact that the Nationals are a really bad offense without Harper and that I need to change that massively on Monday. I think we’ve also made clear that Nelson is still dope and I can’t wait to draft him as my #2 next season. I’m starting to get really excited for 2018 suddenly, as I’m super curious where the ADPs will land for a ton of pitchers. There’s little doubt in my mind that I’ll be having the same strategy as always by waiting a ton on SP and I wonder who the masses will let grab at the best value. Chase Anderson? Patrick Corbin? Luis Castillo? Anyway, you’re safe rolling with Nelson through the Reds, Pirates, and Marlins.
Dillon Peters – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. This was a super late roundup today for many reasons, but a major one was that there were so many arms for me to look at today. Peters was called up as the rosters expanded, and made his MLB debut against the Phillies. Ehhh, I don’t see a major impact arm here. Curveball is good, Fastball is average and I expect the 92mph velocity to drop in future starts as the adrenaline is good. Changeup is as average as they come as well. It just doesn’t spell an arm you want to gamble with for September as he’s a finesse arm with a decent hook that will get a few strikeouts.
Taijuan Walker – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks. After four starts where he tallied 12 strikeouts total, Walker now has a 10 strikeout game. Inside Coors. If you just heard that loud sound, it was my eyes rolling heavily in my head. No I don’t know what sound that would actually make, BUT I’M SURE YOU HEARD IT. That’s just 1 ER in three starts as well, though I still have my doubts featuring Walker against the Dodgers next week. I want to believe.
Matt Boyd – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. I don’t believe this is Boyd turning it around and I’m still Boyd Watching.
Carlos Carrasco – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. So we established a few starts ago that Carrasco is a Cherry Bomb and man is this sweet. He also has a fantastic schedule the rest of the way and I have to hope he can keep it together for the final five. We’re so close Carrasco.
Doug Fister – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. This is ridiculous. Seriously. It’s a 3.28 ERA and 7.48 K/9 since July 20th in 7 starts, though he’s needed a .252 BABIP and 9.8% HR/FB to get it. Oh and his whiff rates are still well under 10%, sitting at a 7.2% mark in that time. Is this The Vargas Rule? With him playing the Jays, A’s, and Orioles next, I think so.
Dinelson Lamet – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks. Well hot damn Lamet, you just can’t stop, can you. I’ve been warning you guys of his Fastball command and tough schedule and Lamet has made me look like a fool, boasting a 2.49 ERA with a 10.15 K/9 in his eight starts since July 23rd. Surprisingly enough, his 4.21 BB/9 has led to only a 1.11 WHIP in that time as well, with a .255 BABIP and 4.13 xFIP (4.8% HR/FB rate). Wait, I really shouldn’t be reserving that HR/FB rate just for a parenthetical. That’s kinda important here as he’s allowed just two HRs in eight games. That is going to come to an end soon for a guy that can’t control his Fastball, but the strikeouts will be there (11.4% whiff rate) as his Slider is dope. He gets the Cardinals, Twins, Diamondbacks next and you maaay want to keep rolling with Lamet.
Nick Pivetta – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Hey look, Pivetta showcased his upside today as well! Great, now I’m tempted to stream him against the Mets next time…
Tanner Roark – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. This is nuts as Roark suddenly has 26 Ks in his last three starts combined after tallying 11 in his previous three. No reason to stop trusting him now.
Luis Castillo – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. A little disappointing to see just four frames in a repeat performance from Castillo – 89 pitches in total – though I can’t help but wonder if this will help him get another start.
Johnny Cueto – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Cueto returned from the DL to face the Cardinals and was fine. I don’t want anything to do with him down the stretch with a tough ROS schedule and the fact that he hurt your team while pitching prior to the injury.
Mike Foltynewicz – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. It’s weird to see a good start from Folty where he has more walks than strikeouts, but, well, there it is.
Mike Leake – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. This start just oozes Leake getting super upset at leaving St. Louis and giving one of the best starts he’s had in a long time. That’s nice Leake, it should say a good amount that I don’t want to start you next time against the Angels. By the way, I currently have the Angels in the 4th tier, but with the acuqisiton of Justin Upton, am I crazy for thinking they should be bumped to the third tier of “Average” on Monday?
Kyle Freeland – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Blegh. I’m happy you guys got off the Freeland train way back in May. I’m proud of you.
Reynaldo Lopez – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. He’s back and I’m totally fine accepting a PQS with seven strikeouts and a 1.00 WHIP.
Sean Manaea – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Ehhhh this isn’t doing anything that’s changing my opinion one way or another. I think you’re safe owning him for three of his next four starts (LAA, @BOS, PHI, TEX).
Sonny Gray – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Three HRs allowed did Gray in. And I remember people telling me he’s not prone to HRs forgetting he pitched in O.Co and still had a 1.38 HR/9 in 2016. Let me be clear though, I am still firmly on the Gray boat n all and I’m not saying I wasn’t behind in favor of him after the trade n all. I just remember a few of these conversations and thought they were meh. MEH.
Cole Hamels – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Stop believing in Hamels. Please.
Jason Hammel – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Blegh. It’s hard to support Hammel when he’s not giving you that PQS.
Gerrit Cole – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Cole has one of the tougher schedules around and had trouble with the Reds last night. He has the Cubs, Reds, Cardinals, and Nationals in his final five games and I’m a little worried.
Buck Farmer – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Barmer doing Barmer things.
Jack Flaherty – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Per usual, I watched this one as Flaherty had a decent amount of hype and I wasn’t all too impressed. His delivery makes him seemingly get under the ball often with a Four-Seamer, which could have potential for successful elevated Fastballs, but as someone who clearly won’t be a groundball pitcher, I wanted a little more out of secondary pitches. His Slider was inconsistent, flashing above average at times but the majority of them looked a bit flat. Changeup could be effective if he matches the spot with his heater often, but I didn’t see him do that much here. Despite the six strikeouts, only four whiffs were recorded in this one as he looked pretty hittable. Obviously this is the first start of his career and there could be changes in future outings, though I wonder how many more he’ll get. Streamer Record 69-53-14.
Dillon Gee – 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Gee, that’s bad.
Tyler Skaggs – 2.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. Heading to Texas is tough. Trusting in Skaggs is tougher. He gets the Athletics, Astros twice, and Indians in his next four games and while I may consider him for a stream against Oakland, I have to believe there is someone else on your wire that can help instead.
Chris Stratton vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Cueto is taking the Friday start so now Stratton is call on Saturday. Yay.
Edwin Jackson vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Not only am I surprised to be endorsing Jackson, but I’m amazed I’m happy I get to. This season has been a weird one.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Jakob Junis vs. Detroit Tigers – He’s been on a roll in his last four starts and the Tigers offense looks absolutely miserable right now. I can see people streaming Rafael Montero against the Phils as well.
Game of the Day
Matt Harvey vs. Charlie Morton – Houston has to deal with another Harvey as The Dark Knight has his dawn.
How does Salazar coming back affect the Cleveland rotation? Does Clev or Tomlin get bumped out?
Salazar is available on my wire. I have Reynaldo Lopez still on my DL. So, I’d have to drop 2. Is it worth dropping 2 of these– Peacock, Maeda, Taillon, Heaney, Lopez– to acquire Salazar? Don’t want to jinx it, but sitting on a 1st round bye next week. So, looking ahead to the semis the following week.
If you’re sitting on a bye, you can probably drop Peacock. He likely won’t last past your bye. I’d monitor Salazar’s start tomorrow and if he brings it, I’d be ok dropping Taillon for him.
With Alex wood coming back would you rather drop Morton or Clevinger? Also if Wood still has decreased velocity is he still better than those two?
Who won the gallows pole today?
Split between Taijuan Walker and Gausman at 16 whiffs apiece
Nick! I’ve been going crazy with the football drafts but I’m still here! Locked for the playoffs too, thanks to you.
I was wondering what your take on Gibson’ recent success was? I’ve read he’s made some mechanical tweaks that have yielded positive results. Do you trust him with his mostly soft schedule ROS?