(Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)
It’s time to talk about the situation of Tyler Glasnow after his third start for the Rays returned 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks in 78 pitches against the Jays. 78 pitches! I thought the Rays were going to use him as a consistent 3/4 inning guy after going 48 and 61 pitches in his first two outings, but they are clearly stretching him out as soon as possible and we have to take this seriously. There are a few things to consider: 1) A 12 inning and three-game sample is far from enough to make any sort of sweeping expectation for the next two months, especially when he’s struggled so much since making his debut in 2016. 2) His 16.5% whiff rate and 60.5% F-Strike rate are both exactly what I want 3) He’s still throwing the same amount of fastballs as he did as a reliever. That last part is the real problem I see – he hasn’t changed his approach a ton since coming over to the Rays. I thought I’d find that he’s throwing plenty more sliders or that one of his pitches became suddenly improved. The closest I have is a greater emphasis on elevated four-seamers, but with such a small sample, I’m not ready to jump on it yet. In the end, I’d own Glasnow in a 12-teamer, but have a short leash. It’s fun and exciting now, just don’t lose sight of how small a sample this is and it could turn south quickly.
Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:
Joey Lucchesi – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Atta boy Lucchesi, fending off the Phillies and giving me another dub. Streaming Record: 71-39. That’s a 3.45 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 25% K rate and 8.5% BB rate for the year, but there is a catch. I was excited about his Churve working last time out and in this one? 3/21 CSW. Womp womp. Four-seamer worked, he got a little lucky with batted balls, and Bob’s your uncle. I’m down for Arizona next – not Coors after – but generally a fine schedule the rest of the way.
Erasmo Ramirez – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Oh, I guess Erasmo is back. Okay, whatever. This is a TEEs and nothing more.
CC Sabathia – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. CC has been incredibly surprising this season, boasting a 3.32 ERA through 22 starts. Now, the 4.38 FIP is startling to say the least and I certainly don’t buy his current ERA. At the same time, he does a marvelous job at weak contact while a boost in overall whiff rate to 10.5% makes me stroke my non-existant wizard beard. His 25.5% soft contact rate is second in the majors behind Chris Sale. It’s wild and makes me buy a little into a suppressed ERA. And he gets Wins! Just keep starting him.
Chris Sale – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks. Speaking of which, aces gonna ace. He was pulled under 70 pitches given it was a DLH (but not a DLH, it’s Sale + the Orioles ya’ll) and don’t worry about the whole five frames thing. Really too bad because this could easily have hinted twenty strikeouts and chased history. 33/68 CSW = 49% CSW. WHAT.
Max Scherzer – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks. Aces gonna ace as Scherzer earned himself a Gallows Pole at 23 whiffs. Who cares if he faced the Cubs, he didn’t.
Chad Bettis – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. Bettis, this is cool but you’re not getting my Bud Light. You’ve used that joke twice in the past week. How much are they paying you? More than enough.
Matt Boyd – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Super underwhelming start here from Boyd, though his fastball velocity is up to 92+ now and an overall sub 80mph EV is all he needed. I’m not a big Boyd fan, but a schedule of Twins, ChiSox, Royals, ChiSox ahead could help some people get to their playoffs.
Carlos Carrasco – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace. We talked about Carrasco’s 4.00 ERA earlier in the year and how it’ll come down quickly through the season. We’re at 3.56 now with a 1.12 WHIP and 28% K rate. Wooooot.
Alex Cobb – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Cobb did this against the Sawx. I know guys, I’m scared too.
Zack Godley – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. It’s four straight starts now with just one walk and things are wonderful in Zackland. Well…kinda. His sinker was crushed 95mph EV on nine balls in play, only 4/14 CSW on cutters and 25/98 CSW overall. Not great, Bob. Wonderful results, but I wanted it to be paired with dominating stuff and that’s not what we got. Obviously keep starting him, here’s to hoping I can properly celebrate next time.
Cole Hamels – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Yes Hamels. YES. He’s in a groove with the Cubs and I’m super tempted to give him a big boost today. I’ll dive more into for that, but you best be starting him unless he hits a major wall.
Jake Junis – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. I expected more than 6/38 whiffs from his slider, but it worked incredibly well with his heater, rendering sub 80mph EV on 13 balls in play overall. This is what happens when his mostly two-pitch mix (5/9 CSW on Curveballs help) is at its peak. Unfortunately, it doesn’t hang out and enjoy the view up there too often.
Dallas Keuchel – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Keuchel is returning to his glorified Toby state and that’s a very nice thing.
Dereck Rodriguez – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. D-Rod continues to cruise along, now sporting a 2.25 ERA across 80 innings and a 6+ IPS. I want to be a bigger fan, but I heavily question his 20/100 CSW and sub 10% whiff rates that make him a BABIP worshipper (.251 BABIP) with a 0.45 HR/9 and 5.3% HR/FB that are just not going to stick for the long haul. Sorry guys, I just can’t put him anywhere near Top 40.
Marcus Stroman – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. It’s super boring but that’s what Stroman does often. Like way too often.
Wei-Yin Chen – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. This is the kind of Chen Music I can live with. The best way I can put this – Chen has 20 records and you bought the greatest hits. You like 4 songs of the record of 25 great songs across 20 records. That’s not a lot of bangers.
Rich Hill – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. I’m a little surprised at the low strikeout count, but this works well. In other news, Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling are now heading to the pen apparently because it’s #Dodgeritis and THE WORLD HATES ME. If I had to make a guess, it lasts for about one or two weeks before Ryu or Hill get hurt and they’re back into the rotation. I understand dropping if you need the space now but I would hold if possible, especially as there’s still time before your playoffs.
Tyson Ross – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Ross’ first start for the Cardinals was one of the better ones he’s had over the past two months. I don’t expect him to do a whole lot better than this these days, and I’d leave him on the wire.
Taylor Cole – 1.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. This was a False Start as yet another team went the bullpen route. It’s like I’m back in college again.
Joe Musgrove – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. I’ll definitely take a PQS with six strikeouts from Musgrove. I’ll take that every day.
Kohl Stewart – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. The Twins needed an arm, they called up Kohl, and he’s a Cup of Schmo who gave us a HAISTFMFWT?! Stew on that.
Noah Syndergaard – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Come on Thor, how can we treat you like a proper ace if you allow 3 ER to the Marlins? He hasn’t had a 2 Er or fewer with 6+ strikeout game since May 20th (seven starts ago). That’s not good. 34/101 CSW with 17 whiffs is pretty good though. Pre-tay, pre-tay, pre-tay good.
Chase Anderson – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. After sparking a bit of hope two weeks ago, Chase has done nothing but disappoint with back-to-back 4 Er clunkers. Pack it up boys.
Trevor Cahill – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Awwwww I wanted Cahill to glide to the finish line without a blemish on this marvelous 2018 season. No, this isn’t the beginning of the end, just a really bad day.
Jake Arrieta – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Dude. Jake. This was the Padres. You gave up a lot of weak contact with sinkers and it didn’t go your way, but still. The Padres.
Luis Castillo – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. I was all for accepting a PQS with four baserunners and seven Ks as Castillo entered the sixth, but a poor fastball down the heart of the plate to Paul Goldschmidt ended the dream in a hurry. Still 32/88 CSW with 14/30 on his changeup (26/30 strikes too. WHOA.), 10/20 SNIP on his slider and a 96mph fastball. Now it comes down to the execution of his heater, specifically consistency. Maybe he can do that the rest of the way. Maybe we have to wait til next year. Maybe he’s just a PEAS. I think it’s a high risk/upside play for the rest of 2018 and I’ll temper my expectations for y’all.
Sean Newcomb – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 12 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. After three starts of 1ER ball, Newcomb faltered against the Brewers for just 18/96 CSW. Bleeeeeegh. That’s bad. His secondary stuff was lacking once again and I’m getting a little impatient waiting for this to work. Will it ever work again? I’m not too confident to tell you it will as his early run in the year seemed off. Rockies are great against lefties, so I’d have some concern next time out.
Dylan Covey – 2.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Remember kids, Don’t Covey Thy Dylan.
Martin Perez – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 11 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Sure, whatever Perez.
Today’s Streamer
Trevor Richards vs. Atlanta Braves – I could go his teammate Pablo Lopez earlier in the day, but I’ll chase the upside of Trevor instead. There’s also Reynaldo Lopez against the Tigers and while that could turn out well given ReyLo took a step forward against the Yanks last time, it’s not enough for me to ignore the floor just yet.
Tomorrow’s Streamer
Jaime Barria vs. San Diego Padres – The Padres are blegh and Barria can take advantage.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Derek Holland vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – I’m not giving up on him after his last start. There’s also Felix Pena vs. San Diego Padres but I’m not a fan of Pena much anymore.
Game of the Day
Jacob deGrom vs. Luis Severino – Um, yeah this seems fun.
Hey Nick, last year down the stretch as projected schedule strength really started to come into focus you started to modify the list a bit to adjust for that. Are there plans to do the same this year? I’m looking at someone like German Marquez, who gets Houston/Atlanta and then a handful of home games and realizing that he will likely have no value for me going forward (not the greatest example, since he’s not all that good to begin with anyway.)
So… I’m still holding on to Skaggs right? ?
In your DL spot, yes.
I think he can be productive again come the end of the month/early September, just give him some time.
If you can’t afford the three weeks or so, then cut your losses for something that will help now
Would you advise buying low on Stripling in hopes he returns to the rotation?
I am wondering if they are waiting on someone to breakdown to insert him back into the rotation. Maybe just wondering if this is an attempt to manage his innings. Ryu can’t be really be in their long-term plans.
I am not buying the “bullpen is hurting” argument for Stripling. The Dodgers have plenty of solid arms in the pen. This has to be a case of phantom pain, or ‘Dodgeritis’, moving Stripling to the bullpen in order to limit his innings. If LA is going to make the post-season, they will need Stripling as a SP. Maeda can fill either role — has excelled in both in fact. LA went cheap on relievers in the offseason but they are still capable. I fully expect Stripling to be back in the starting five by end of August. And I would certainly burn a claim if he’s getting dropped.
The back half Sabathia’s Yankees tenure has worked out brilliantly for them – not just this year! In a time when HR-rate has been spiking, CC found a way to reduce his, and between ’16-’18 he’s up to ~450 innings of 3.68 ERA now. Think we have to buy it. Shame he hit the DL though!