Sometimes I feel like I’m Vince Offer when I write these plays out. Hi, I’m Tyler G, and let me tell you why you need to bet this! First off, it can’t lose! Secondly, it’s free money! Lastly, don’t you want to have fun? Of course you do! So come on down to Pitcher List where we will grow that bankroll of yours and make all of your dreams come true! (Some rules and restrictions may apply).
Tigers F5 under 1.5 runs -120
The last time Shane Bieber faced the Tigers this line was sitting closer to -180. So, what changed? Well, he gave up two earned runs in the first 5, so let me sell you on why you should go back to the well on this one. No team scores fewer runs in the first 5 innings than the Tigers and it’s by a pretty significant margin. The Biebs also has the track record of taming these Tigers down to a .268 xwOBA across 130 plate appearances. But wait! There’s more! Detroit has the worst wRC+ against right-handed pitching so far this year, and six of Bieber’s eight starts have stayed under this mark.
Jon Gray over 15.5 outs -105
Do you live on the East Coast and are you looking for a 10 PM sweat between two of the worst teams in the game? Look no further! Jon Gray, who might also be a character in Game of Thrones, appears to be healthy once again. No blisters or knee issues going on, so let’s bank on him pitching into the sixth inning against the A’s who, you guessed it, cannot hit the baseball. They’re ahead of only the Tigers in wRC+ vs. RHP and see the eighth-fewest pitches per plate appearance.
We have seen his pitch count climb into the 90’s the past two starts as he has moved past these ailments, and as a result, he has cleared this mark in both outings. The A’s aren’t very familiar with Gray either, with only 15 combined plate appearances against him. Don’t trust what I have to say?! Keep on looking no further than you were from before! The projections from SaberSim have him going 6.5 innings pitched. How does one pitch half an inning? I don’t know, but I do know that 6.5 innings is a lot more than 5.33 innings. I didn’t get a C- in AP statistics during my senior year of high school for nothing. Trust the computers.
Blue Jays -121 vs LAA
Following six straight games without scoring more than three runs, the Blue Jays bats took a bath in OxiClean and are as good as new! Toronto’s offense has scored 14 runs over their last two games and now they face MLB The Show generated player Chase Silseth, who is making the third start of his career. Silseth (try saying that 10 times fast) got an easy pass his first couple of starts getting the A’s, but he’s about to get slap-chopped by the Jays.
To get Toronto at this palatable price of -121 with up-and-coming star Alek Manoah on the mound makes this a definite play for me. He has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any of his starts and ranks in the top ~86th percentile in xwOBA/xERA. The Angels are 3-6 over their last nine games and the offense has slowed down more recently. Take the Blue Jays to get the dub out in Anaheim tonight.
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)