Following a tough Thursday of bets, I have decided to make a slight adjustment to my betting strategy for today. I usually try to recommend bets that are +100 or better in an attempt to find the best value for you readers and maximize profit. I mean, anybody can pick a winner when it is at -135. Well today I am going to be an anybody, and recommend a few bets on the safer side to try and get back on track.
This season, I have decided to treat readers to four bets in each article under the following parameters: 1) A bet on a team, 2) A bet on a total, 3) A batter prop bet, and 4) A pitcher prop bet. Hopefully, this diversification will lead to success in our wagers (but probably not).
Twins @ Royals Moneyline
We begin with a line that is actually right at -110, but I believe should be more like -120 or -130. Kansas City starter Brady Singer takes the mound on Sunday after twirling an impressive 7 shutout innings against the White Sox on Tuesday, allowing just 4 base hits with 9 strikeouts. Impressive, yes. But we have to remember that this is a White Sox lineup that thrives against LHP but is well below average against RHP. Add in the fact that this was Singer’s first start of the season after beginning in the bullpen and being demoted to AAA, and I think we just have to take this impressive start with a grain of salt.
This Twins lineup has also really picked it up the last few games, scoring 29 runs over their last three. Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco all have OPS’ over 1.100 against Singer in their careers as well, so they know what they are getting from the young righthander.
Speaking of returns, Bailey Ober is back after a stretch on the IL and he looks to pick up right where he left off. Prior to his injury, Ober had allowed 1 ER or less in three consecutive starts and was building on the momentum he established during the 2nd half of 2021. There may be some bumps here and there, as there usually is when one returns from injury, but the fact of the matter is if Ober had been healthy for the last month and Singer hadn’t just thrown a gem against Chicago, this line would be much more in favor of the Twins. I like Minnesota to take the series sweep here and take the -110 moneyline victory on the road.
Pick: Twins ML (-110 DK, -110 FD)
Mets @ Rockies O/U 11 Runs
Picking over/unders at Coors Field can be difficult because the number is always so much higher than the rest of games in baseball. However, 11 runs is actually not too bad for Coors, and I really like the over here for a number of reasons. While I normally like Austin Gomber when he’s pitching in Coors, the Mets lineup is just too daunting right now to trust him. Even if he is able to limit baserunners, guys like Pete Alonso, Starling Marte and J.D. Davis just mash lefties, and with a slight breeze blowing out to left, all it could take is a few swings to blow this one open.
On the flip side, for a guy like Taijuan Walker who doesn’t have overpowering stuff and relies on the movement of his pitches, Coors Field is a nightmare. The thin air is going to rob Walker of the movement on his pitches, and Rockies batters will be able to easily square up his offerings. I’m not saying both teams are going to steamroll the pitchers to double digits quickly, but I just don’t think these pitchers are going to be able to manage these lineups well enough to keep the total under this number for the entire course of the game. And besides, overs are always more fun.
Pick: OVER 11 Runs (-105 DK, -104 FD)
J.D. Martinez/Julio Rodriguez O/U 0.5 Hits Each
Something that DraftKings and FanDuel have started offering this year are Same Game Parlays, which opens up a whole new world of possibilities for betting on baseball. The Mariners and Red Sox have been churning out the runs during the first three games of this series, averaging 13 runs per game. Despite the quality pitching matchup of Logan Gilbert vs. Nathan Eovaldi, I think we need to take advantage of the hot streak these two teams have been on. While Gilbert and Eovaldi certainly have the stuff to succeed, each has been a little off of late, as they have allowed at least 3 ER in each of their last three starts. Eovaldi also famously gave up 9 runs on 5 home runs in 1.2 innings in his last start. He won’t be that bad today, but clearly batters are seeing his pitches very well right now.
Julio Rodriguez has somewhat quietly shown that he is everything that the prospect evaluators thought he would be and maybe more. Think Byron Buxton but probably without the first couple years of struggles. Meanwhile, the ageless wonder J.D. Martinez just continues to be one of the more consistent hitters in baseball to the point that I think some people forget how good he is. In the last week, Martinez is hitting .464 while Rodriguez is slightly lower at .429. These guys are on top of their games right now, while their counterparts on the mound simply are not. Parlaying these two to get a hit is going for -110 on DraftKings and -120 on FanDuel and I am very comfortable with taking that action.
Pick: Martinez/Rodriguez OVER 0.5 Hits Each (-110 DK, -120 FD)
Logan Gilbert O/U 2.5 Earned Runs
Building off the previous bet, Logan Gilbert has certainly shown promise on this early season, but lately he has started to come back down to Earth. After allowing just 2 ERs in his first 5 starts, spanning 28 innings, Gilbert has allowed 10 ERs in his last three starts over 17 innings. While he has continued to put up strong strikeout numbers during that stretch, Major League hitters have made an adjustment and are starting to hit him considerably harder. Now it is time for Gilbert to make an adjustment, and doing that against a Red Sox lineup that has been as hot as anyone over the last week (149 wRC+) is going to be incredibly difficult. Rafael Devers, Trevor Story and J.D. Martinez all have wRC+ over 235 during the last week, and I think Gilberts streak of allowing over 2.5 earned runs is going to be extended to 4 today.
Pick: Gilbert OVER 2.5 Earned Runs (-135 DK)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 23-24-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $316.82
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)