A bevy of day games litter the baseball schedule today as we look at a few of Thursday’s best bets:
Austin Meadows to Hit a HR
Having hit a HR prop on Monday thanks to Franmil Reyes, we are going back to the well here and going with Tampa slugger Austin Meadows. While Meadows hasn’t gotten his average up to the level he would like, he has already more than doubled his HR total from last year in roughly the same number of ABs. He even has two bombs in the last five games. On Thursday in Baltimore, Meadows gets to face RHP Dean Kremer, who has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four starts. Betting on HRs is always a risky proposition but I like Meadows chances to clear the fences today and maybe even bang one off the warehouse beyond RF at Camden Yards.
Pick: YES (+290 DK, +300 FD)
Astros Total Runs O/U 4.5
This will now be the third start this season for LHP Cole Irvin against Houston and the Astros were able to push four runs across against him in each of the first two. Houston has just mashed LHP this year to the tune of a .347 wOBA and 125 wRC+, both top 3 in baseball. The Astros have also been extremely hot offensively lately and haven’t scored fewer than four runs in a game since May 5th, spanning 13 games. Look for Alex Bregman and company to be circling the bases frequently in this one as they take advantage of another lefty matchup.
Pick: OVER 4.5 (+104 DK)
Pirates @ Braves Total Runs O/U 8.5
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been an absolutely abysmal offensive team in 2021, especially against LHP with a .281 wOBA and 78 wRC+. Drew Smyly has actually pitched very well in his two starts since coming off the IL, allowing just 1 ER over 12 IP. He will have a very good opportunity to keep that quality streak going at home against a Buccos lineup that just simply doesn’t have the firepower to put up runs even on a good day. One of the bright spots for the Pirates lately though has been the pitching performance Will Crowe, who was able to keep his team in the ballgame in his last two starts against the Cubs and Giants. Crowe’s ability to command his stuff and keep batters off-balance will be important in holding the Braves in check and I believe he will be effective enough to keep this number low.
Pick: UNDER 8.5 (+102 DK, -102 FD)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 20-18-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$1,074.07
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)