Shame on me for calling for a sweep and not delivering on my promise. We split last Friday’s card going 2-2, which is definitely not cool, and I need to be better. I told you all to get your brooms, and I failed.
Luckily for all of you, I meditated more than usual over the weekend, so my mind is as sharp as a knife. Let’s cut through these wagers and whip out those brooms the way we should have on Friday.
Chris Paddack Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-109) vs. BAL
There’s a new Sheriff in Minneapolis, and he goes by the name of Chris Paddack. Since ditching the UPS uniform he donned out in San Diego, The Sheriff has looked formidable in his first three starts for the Twins. It’s obviously still early, but ranking in the top-86 percentile in xwOBA, xERA, and chase rate while holding a 2.80 xFIP sets a good first impression for the Minnesota faithful.
Tonight he will get a fantastic chance to improve on those numbers. He faces off against the lowly Orioles, who have the second-highest strikeout rate and sixth-lowest wRC+ in the game. Paddack and his 32.5 CSW% should be able to find at least five punchouts tonight against this K-heavy team. If you don’t trust my word for it, then trust the computers: SaberSim has Paddack projected for 5.61 strikeouts tonight.
Blue Jays Over 3.5 Runs (-125) vs. NYY
Look, I love my Yankees more than the vast majority of things in this world, but I also love this sound. It’s not like I’m taking the Blue Jays to win! I just think they’ll muster at least four runs together at home with Jordan Montgomery on the bump.
The Jays bats have yet to play to their full potential early this season, but they still boast one of the best offenses in baseball. Just last season, they were second in wRC+ vs lefties, and they scored eight runs in just 10 innings against Montgomery in 2021.
I don’t usually bet home run props, but if you’re feeling frisky on this Monday, Bo Bichette is 6-1 to hit a dinger tonight. He hit one out yesterday and is 4-for-8 with a double and two home runs against Montgomery. Final score prediction: Yankees 27, Blue Jays 4.
Diamondbacks/Marlins: F5 under 3 runs (+100)
This is not a bet for the faint of heart. Generally speaking, betting isn’t in the best interest of anyone with that condition. For those of you who do like to sweat, jump in the sauna with me for this first-five under. There’s plenty of reason to think this will stay under with Zac Gallen and Pablo Lopez on the mound.
The two pitchers have combined to allow just two earned runs in 38.1 innings. Gallen has made two of the best offenses in the Mets and Dodgers look like little-league teams. Considering this is a revenge-game for Gallen, I wouldn’t be surprised if he no-hit the Marlins with all the pent-up emotions he must have toward them for trading him away.
Lopez, on the other hand, could probably throw a perfect game since it’s the Diamondbacks we’re talking about here.
The Snakes might as well be hitting with a snake given how poorly they have performed. They have the second-worst wRC+ in the game and the worst strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. I’m also drinking the juice on the over of Lopez’s K prop — sitting at -145 — for at least six strikeouts. He has recorded six or more punchouts in three of his four starts this year thanks in part to his stellar 34.3% CSW rate.
However, I’m avoiding the full game total of 6.5 runs because of the Diamondbacks’ propensity to blow games open due to their bullpen, which ranks dead last in xFIP. Best of luck to you all today!
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)