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Bets of the Day – May 1st

Kyle Stanzel highlights Thursday's best bets around baseball.

The peace and serenity of a beautiful Sunday morning is exactly what I need after an ugly 1-3 Thursday with the bets. Time to channel the tranquility and focus in on four surefire bets for the people.

This season, I have decided to treat readers to four bets in each article under the following parameters: 1) A bet on a team, 2) A bet on a total, 3) A batter prop bet, and 4) A pitcher prop bet. Hopefully, this diversification will lead to success in our wagers (but probably not).

 

Yankees Run Line After 5 Innings

 

Over the last week, no team has been hotter than the New York Yankees. The Bronx Bombers have blasted an astounding 15 home runs in that time and that has resulted in an 8-game winning streak. On Sunday, Luis Severino takes the hill for the Yankees and even though he was a little shaky in giving up 4 ERs in his last start, the former ace has had an encouraging start to 2022. His counterpart, Daniel Lynch, has also had an encouraging start with 11 consecutive scoreless innings in his last two starts. While I think Severino obviously has the stuff and pedigree to sustain his success, I am not sold on Lynch especially in this spot. The Royals have produced not even half the wRC+ that the Yankees have over the past week (74 to 184) and that trend continues Sunday. You can get Yankees – 1 after 5 innings on DraftKings at +105 and I am all over that today.

Pick: Yankees -1 After 5 Innings (+105 DK)

 

Twins @ Rays O/U 7.5 Runs

 

Surprisingly, the Twins and Rays are not too far behind the Yankees in offensive output over that past week. Normally I wouldn’t be too crazy about backing these two teams for the over but with a battle of the Joshes for a pitching matchup (Josh Winder vs. Josh Fleming), I am going to take a chance on the score reaching 8 runs. Despite the strikeouts, the Twins had success against LHP Shane McClanahan on Saturday, taking him deep twice. Josh Fleming is no McClanahan and could have trouble with the likes Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa in the box. Winder has also been largely unimpressive in his brief Major League career and the Rays should be able to bounce him from the game relatively quickly. This feels like a game where the books didn’t adjust the game total to reflect the recent success of these two offenses and the mediocre pitching matchup, so I will be taking the over and reaping the rewards.

Pick: OVER 7.5 Runs (-110 DK,  -118 FD)

 

Taylor Ward O/U 1.5 Total Bases

 

Welcome back Taylor Ward! What an incredible start to the 2022 season for the 28-year old Angels OF. I think its time we acknowledge that Ward could be in for a breakout season as he is slashing .392/.400/.784 over his first 62 plate appearances and is taking advantage of having Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon in the lineup around him. He will be facing soft-tossing geriatric LHP Dallas Keuchel on Sunday and Ward has always had positive splits against lefties in his career (120 wRC+ compared to 103 wRC+ against RHP). It is a matter of when, not if, Ward hits for over 1.5 total bases against Keuchel.

Pick: Ward OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-105 DK, -110 FD)

 

Joe Musgrove to Record a Win

 

Joe Musgrove returns to Pittsburgh and he is most likely very happy at the prospect of facing this Pirates offense. Outside of Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds there just isn’t anyone that really strikes fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers. Musgrove has been outstanding thus far in 2022, starting the season off with four consecutive quality starts. On the other hand, Mitch Keller has pitched through the 5th inning just once in his four starts and has to go up against a Padres lineup that has scored at least 6 runs in each of its last five games.

Now the pick here is Musgrove to Record a Win, but DraftKings is really taking its sweet time in putting up the odds for pitcher props. As of the moment that I am typing this, they have not put up the odds for Musgrove to win yet. So as an alternative, I will also recommend the Padres -0.5 run line after 5 innings at -120. Can’t go wrong either way on this one but I would just rather have the better odds with Musgrove to Record a Win, whenever it comes out.

Pick: Musgrove to Record a Win or Padres -0.5 After 5 Innings (-120 DK)

 

Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 13-11-0

Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $490.91

 

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Kyle Stanzel

New Jersey-born and North Carolina-bound, Kyle is as die-hard a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as there is, attending the last ever game at Three Rivers Stadium and the first ever game at PNC Park. Follow him on Twitter @style_kanzel

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