With just three games going down on Monday, there are slim pickings as far as betting goes. Today we are looking at various totals for each of the three games, which provide some interesting pitching matchups.
Marlins @ Red Sox Total Runs O/U 9.5
After an exciting Sunday night win to complete the three-game sweep in New York, the Red Sox travel home to take on the Miami Marlins. Boston’s offense showed up for the series against the Yankees, but before that, the team was mired in a bit of a slump. After an emotional Sunday night win, I think Boston may show up a little punchless on Monday night, especially against a pitcher like Pablo Lopez who has not allowed more than 2 ERs in his last four starts. On the mound for Boston is Nick Pivetta, who has seen some mixed results of late. While Pivetta has given up 10 ER in 17 IPs over his last three starts, those starts also came against quality offenses in Toronto, Atlanta, and Houston. He also had an impressive 26 strikeouts in those starts and was more effective than his ERA would indicate. Against Miami’s abysmal offense, Pivetta looks like a great pitching option tonight and I don’t think this game comes anywhere near the 9.5 projected total.
Pick: UNDER 9.5 (-115 DK, -118 FD)
Royals @ Angels Total Runs O/U 9
Highly-touted Kansas City prospect Jackson Kowar makes his debut on Monday, taking his filthy changeup and 0.85 ERA in AAA to the bump against the Angels. While I have faith in Kowar’s electric fastball/changeup combo and improved command, making your debut on the road against an Angels lineup that has scored 17 runs in their last two games is not a recipe for success. Opposite Kowar is struggling veteran Dylan Bundy, who hasn’t allowed fewer than 4 ERs in any of his previous four starts. Now he faces a Royals lineup that is hitting the ball well of late (.323 wOBA, 106 wRC+ in the last two weeks), including Andrew Benintendi who is looking like his old self and has 11 hits in 32 career ABs against Bundy. If there is any game with the potential for fireworks on Monday, it is this one and I think 9 runs are well within reach.
Pick: OVER 9 (-107 DK, -105 FD)
Cubs @ Padres Total Runs First 3 Innings O/U 2.5
Two of the brighter young pitchers this season face off when Adbert Alzolay takes the mound for Chicago against Ryan Weathers and the Padres. The Cubs actually earned a sweep of San Diego last week and Alzolay was dominant over 5 IP in his start, striking out 7 and allowing just 1 ER. The Padres offense has been scuffling of late and has failed to score more than 4 runs in any game since May 29. While Weathers allowed 4 ER in 5 IP against the Cubs last Tuesday, I think he will turn things around at home this time. While I am confident in these two starters to limit runs, I am not as confident in their ability to work deep into games. For that reason, I am looking at the total for the first 3 innings, so I don’t have to worry about either bullpen blowing up. The first time through the order should be a breeze for these two talented starters and I like the under 2.5 at -125.
Pick: UNDER 2.5 (-125 DK)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 25-25-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$984.07
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