It is slim pickings with only seven games on the docket tonight, but you didn’t think that would actually slow me down, did you? As always, be aware of the weather before placing your wagers. The games in Cleveland and Cinncinati could be postponed…
Cal Quantrill over 17.5 outs -120 vs TEX
I’ve been betting the outs market on Cal Quantrill’s starts for the past couple of weeks now, and it has been very profitable. He has gone at least six innings in seven straight starts, and dating back to July of 2021 he has eclipsed this in 19 of his last 24. Quantrill pitches to contact (top 77% hardhit%) and that keeps him rolling along into games. Some of the advanced metrics think he is due for regression, but an 80% hit rate over 24 starts is too strong to ignore.
Luckily for him, the matchup on hand isn’t one to be too concerned about. The Texas Rangers see the fewest amount of pitches per plate appearance and have the 8th lowest wRC+ (88) and 3rd lowest BB% (6.9%) against RHP this season. 9 of the last 11 righties to face them have gone at least 6 innings as well. Bank on Cal to find another quality start tonight.
Hunter Greene over 6.5 strikeouts +102 vs ARI
There’s only one team that has a higher strikeout rate against righties than the Diamondbacks. They have yet to see this rookie flamethrower either, and if it goes anything close to Roansy Contreras‘ outing then Hunter Greene will be getting us in the green tonight. I bring up Roansy because he features a high-octane fastball that he blows past batters just like Greene. The Pirates rookie had eight punchouts against Arizona just two days ago. Nobody throws their fastball harder than Greene, and he has recorded at least six strikeouts in nine of ten starts this year. Even though he hasn’t worked very deep into games, he still has found his way to plenty of Ks, and shouldn’t have any trouble rattling these snakes in Cincinnati tonight.
Red Sox +102 vs LAA
Do the Angels finally stop the bleeding tonight? Losers of 11 straight, it is hard to see an end in sight with the way they have been playing and who they face tonight. When it comes to offense these teams are on the opposite side of the spectrum over the last 14 days. Boston has the 2nd best wRC+ (149) while the Angels are 26th (88).
Noah Syndergaard clearly isn’t the pitcher he once was and is coming off a horrendous drubbing last start in which he gave up five earned runs in just two and third innings. He ranks in the bottom 26% in xwOBA and the Sox have squared him up well in the past with a collective .360 xwOBA in 59 plate appearances against him. Michael Wacha isn’t some world-beater, but he is in the top 82% in hardhit% and threw five scoreless innings against the Halos earlier this year. Boston has won in six of his eight starts this year, and this winning trend looks pretty enticing at plus-money odds against a team as freezing cold as the Angels right now.
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