The baseball season is in full swing as we are cruising right along into the dog days of summer. Maybe its the warm weather settling in, but I am feeling very good about these picks today as we have plenty of predictive data now to analyze. Time to pad the bankroll heading into the weekend:
Gerrit Cole Total Ks O/U 8.5
Gerrit Cole’s 36.9 K% is the 2nd-highest of his career, rivaling his 2019 season with Houston when he finished 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting. However, he hasn’t been punching out as many hitters over his last three starts, striking out just 19 batters in 18 IP, well off his numbers from earlier in the season. That could explain why DraftKings has his total Ks for today at just 8.5, most likely his lowest of the season. The Tampa Bay Rays have been one of the more potent offenses of late, but people might be surprised to know that they have the 2nd-highest K% (27.4%) in baseball this season. In fact, the last time Cole had double-digit Ks was on May 12 against these Rays, when he struck out 12 batters in 8 scoreless innings. Look for Cole to get back on track this afternoon at home against Tampa.
Pick: OVER 8.5 (-125 DK)
Astros Total Runs O/U 4.5
The Astros are entering White Sox territory with their ability to hit LHP. With right-handed sluggers like Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman peppering the top of their lineup, lefties don’t stand a chance especially with that short porch in LF in Houston. On top of that, Houston has been heating up lately, hitting for a .328 wOBA and 116 wRC+ over the past week, which includes their 4-hit 2-run effort last night against RHP Nick Pivetta. I know that Martín Pérez has been very effective this year, but something has to give and I believe it will be Pérez regressing back to the mean of his career. Until the Astros prove me wrong, don’t think just bet the over on their total runs against LHP.
Pick: OVER 4.5 (-110 DK, -115 FD)
Rangers @ Rockies Total Runs O/U 10.5
Texas and Colorado have been two of the most abysmal offenses in baseball this year and apparently, not even Coors Field can cure their hitting woes. The teams have combined to score just 14 runs over 20 innings in the first two games of the series and I think the trend continues. Austin Gomber has emerged as a reliable arm for Colorado and he even allowed 0 ER in 5.1 IP against San Diego in his last start at Coors Field. Mike Foltynewicz has seemingly been pitching over his head all season and we are just waiting for him to implode in catastrophic fashion. But Colorado’s offense just doesn’t have enough firepower for me to think it will happen today. 10.5 is a lot of runs for two of the worst offenses in baseball, so I’ll take my chances and go with the under here.
Pick: UNDER 10.5 (-109 DK, -115 FD)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 25-22-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$1,284.07
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)