The 2021 baseball season is rolling right along towards the All-Star break and the buyer/seller lists are starting to take shape. This is always something to take account with betting as sellers tend to take a nosedive as they come to terms with the futility of their efforts. With that in mind, here are a few bets to keep an eye out for on Monday:
Pirates @ Rockies Moneyline
Pittsburgh is certainly not a good baseball team and their 29-47 record is proof of that. But the Pirates do a few things extremely well that allow them to be competitive in games despite their overall lack of talent. According to Pirates beat writer Jason Mackey, the team has the fewest errors and best fielding percentage in baseball since May 9th. Having a third-baseman like Ke’Bryan Hayes, who can do things like this, certainly helps. The team also has the fifth-lowest K% in baseball at 22.4%. These two things will be extremely important when they travel to Coors Field to take on the Rockies on Monday.
Outside of this last start in Seattle, Kyle Freeland has struggled mightily this season and that includes allowing three ERs, four BBs, and five hits in Pittsburgh in May. The Pirates offense has actually performed very well over the last week (.335 wOBA, 113 wRC+) and Coors Field should only help them continue to swing the bat well. While I certainly don’t think Tyler Anderson is a lock for a quality start for Pittsburgh, he does have a lot of experience pitching in Coors Field and has been relatively solid in his 40 career starts there (4.14 ERA). It doesn’t happen often but today I am taking the Pirates moneyline.
Pick: Pirates ML (+102 DK, +106)
Cubs @ Brewers Total Runs After 5 Innings O/U 3.5
We are in for a good ole-fashioned pitcher’s duel in Milwaukee on Monday between two pitchers who have been dominant of late against two offenses that have struggled mightily. After a shaky start to the season, Kyle Hendricks is back to his weirdly unhittable, soft-tossing ways, including eight consecutive quality starts and back-to-back six-inning shutout performances. Freddy Peralta doesn’t have quite the quality start streak that Hendricks has, but he hasn’t allowed more than two ERs in eight consecutive starts and has been absolutely electric all season long. While Milwaukee has been in the bottom third of baseball in offense over the last two weeks (.300 wOBA, 88 wRC+), the Cubs have been literally the worst hitting team over the last two weeks (.251 wOBA, 58 wRC+) and I don’t see either team scoring much early in the game. There is a chance these two teams don’t make it to four runs in the entire game and they certainly won’t be reaching that number through the first 5 innings.
Pick: UNDER 3.5 After 5 Innings (+102 DK, -105 FD)
Giants @ Dodgers Run Line
Normally a Giants/Dodgers matchup between Anthony DeSclafani and Trevor Bauer would result in a run line so lopsided that it is not worth betting on. However, thanks to Tony Disco’s hot stretch and Bauer’s recent mediocrity, we can get the Dodgers -1.5 here at +104 and I’m in. DeSclafani has been dominant in his last four starts, but three of those four have been against middle-of-the-road offenses in the Cubs, Nationals, and Diamondbacks. In two starts against the Dodgers this season, he has allowed 12 ER in 7.1 IP. With Los Angeles’ lineup getting back to full strength, I am confident they will put up more than enough runs in support of Bauer to cover the run line and ruin Tony Disco’s current streak.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (+104 DK, +106)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 33-32-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$1,103.07
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