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Bets of the Day – June 26

Kyle Stanzel highlights Thursday's best bets around baseball.

Hope everyone out there is enjoying their weekend. A minor cold streak has me digging deep for the best bets today’s slate has to offer, and I think we have four that will make Sunday a positive conclusion to the weekend.

This season, I have decided to treat readers to four bets in each article under the following parameters: 1) A bet on a team, 2) A bet on a total, 3) A batter prop bet, and 4) A pitcher prop bet. Hopefully, this diversification will lead to success in our wagers (but probably not).

 

Blue Jays @ Brewers Run Line After 5 Innings

 

Good old Chi Chi Gonzalez takes the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday, and Blue Jays hitters have to be ecstatic. Gonzalez actually faced Toronto earlier this season when he was pitching for Minnesota and allowed 3 ERs thanks to 2 HRs in just 3 innings. Now he is facing a lineup that has been on a tear of late (129 wRC+ over the last two weeks) and doesn’t have any weak spots with Vlad Guerrero, Jr., Lourdes Gurriel, Jr., Alejandro Kirk, and Teoscar Hernandez landing in the top 30 in baseball in wRC+ in that span.

The Brewers lineup has been decent in its own right lately, but they have to face Jose Berrios instead. A few tough outings have bloated Berrios’ ERA to 5.11, but when he is on, he can shut down an opposing lineup. He won’t need to throw a complete-game shutout, but a solid outing from Berrios will have Toronto looking very good in this one. Considering that Chi Chi will probably only be around for a few innings, we are going to take the Blue Jays to be leading after 5 innings, which also has better odds at -110 than the Toronto moneyline at -145.

Pick: Blue Jays -0.5 After 5 Innings (-110 DK, -128 FD)

 

Astros @ Yankees O/U 9 Runs

 

Hey, this bet worked for us on Thursday, so why not go back to the well? Well, since the 13-run outburst on Thursday, the Astros and Yankees have combined for just 7 total runs in two games, and New York couldn’t even get a hit yesterday. This means you know they are going to come out swinging in this one, and usually, when the Yankees are swinging the bats, it means that runs are going up on the board. Jose Urquidy is coming off a nice outing against the Mets, but he has also given up 12 hits in an outing twice in his last seven starts and has allowed at least 1 HR in each of those starts.

Nasty Nestor Cortes has been Not Effective Nestor of late. He allowed 3 HRs in his last start at Tampa Bay. While I think he probably outduels Urquidy on Sunday, Cortes will have a tough time getting out the likes of Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Jose Altuve in Yankee Stadium. Despite the struggles of the Yankees and Astros of late, I am confident these offenses get right and reach double digits today.

Pick: OVER 9 Runs  (-120 DK, -114 FD)

 

Vlad Guerrero, Jr. O/U 1.5 Total Bases

 

We have already noted the shortcomings of Chi Chi Gonzalez on the mound, and I don’t think I need to do too much convincing for you to look at Vlad Guerrero, Jr. on Sunday. Over the last two weeks, he is slashing .346/.443/.635 with 4 HRs and just keeps chugging along as one of the best hitters in baseball. He even hit a HR against Gonzalez when he pitched against Toronto earlier this month. Don’t overthink this. At -115, I’ll take Guerrero to get over 1.5 total bases all day.

Pick: Guerrero OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-115 DK, -115 FD)

 

Shane McClanahan O/U 18.5 Outs Recorded

 

Have you guys heard about this Shane McClanahan fellow? Turns out he is pretty good at throwing the baseball. You know who is not good at hitting the baseball when it is thrown by a lefty? The Pittsburgh Pirates. Sure they have an exciting lineup with Oneil Cruz and Jack Suwinski pumping some much-needed life into the Pittsburgh baseball scene. But as lefties themselves, they struggle with the southpaws, and McClanahan is the best the sport has to offer. The question here isn’t “will he do well?” It is “will the Rays let him pitch into the 7th inning?” Pittsburgh has done a decent job of making Tampa use up some of its bullpen in this series so far, so I think as long as McClanahan keeps the pitch count in check, he should get a chance to go a little deeper. At +135, I’ll take that chance on him and graciously reap the rewards when McClanahan is still getting outs in the 7th inning.

Pick: McClanahan OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded (+135 DK)

 

Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 41-40

Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $606.52

 

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Kyle Stanzel

New Jersey-born and North Carolina-bound, Kyle is as die-hard a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as there is, attending the last ever game at Three Rivers Stadium and the first ever game at PNC Park. Follow him on Twitter @style_kanzel

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