The great thing about betting on baseball is that there are so many different angles to look at and numerous unique betting options to take advantage of. Today we are venturing off the beaten path a bit and targeting some intriguing props:
Orioles @ Blue Jays Total Runs in the 1st Inning O/U 1.5
The Orioles and Blue Jays offenses are in a great position on Thursday and the sportsbooks know it. With Dean Kremer and Anthony Kay on the mound, the total for the game is at 10.5. While I certainly think that number is within reach for Baltimore and Toronto, I am looking at them to score early in the game. Kremer’s last start was actually against the Blue Jays and, low and behold, they scored two runs off him in the first inning. Anthony Kay is a quasi-starter/reliever who hasn’t experienced much success with a 6.43 ERA. Facing a Baltimore offense that ranks in the top 5 in baseball against LHP (.337 wOBA, 114 wRC+), I expect Kay to struggle and struggle early against the likes of Cedric Mullins and Trey Mancini. DraftKings is offering over 1.5 1st inning runs at +160 and that value is way too good to pass up.
Pick: OVER 1.5 (+160 DK)
Astros @ Tigers Alternate Run Line
The Houston Astros are an absolute wagon right now and the sportsbooks have adjusted accordingly. Luckily for us, we are not restricted to the simple moneyline and -1.5 betting options. Jose Urena takes the mound for the Tigers on Thursday and he has allowed no less than 7 ER in each of his last two starts. That does not bode well for Detroit as the Astros have been far and away the hottest team in baseball at the plate over the last two weeks (.398 wOBA, 159 wRC+). While Detroit’s offense has shown some punch lately, Luis Garcia has allowed just 1 ER for Houston in four of his last five starts, with those starts coming against the dangerous offenses of the White Sox, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Dodgers. This is shaping up to be another blowout in favor of the Astros, who are interestingly enough looking to avenge a three-game sweep at the hands of the Tigers back in early April. Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering Houston -2.5 at plus odds and that is where I am looking in this one.
Pick: Astros – 2.5 (+105 DK, +114 FD)
Walker Buehler Total Ks O/U 7.5
Walker Buehler is coming off of a stellar outing against the Diamondbacks in which he flirted with a no-hitter for 7 innings and struck out 11 batters on his way to an easy victory. The Diamondbacks are certainly no juggernaut offensively, but they do have just a 24.8 K% over the last two weeks. Compare that to the Cubs’ 29.3 K% in that same time period and you can see why I am bullish on Buehler on Thursday. When you consider that the Cubs just flew out to Los Angeles from Chicago to begin a lengthy ten-game road trip, another double-digit strikeout game for Buehler is a fairly safe bet. With the line set at just 7.5, all Buehler has to do is not get injured (fingers crossed) and this is a lock.
Pick: OVER 7.5 (-167 DK, -136 FD)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 32-32-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$938.07
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)