I don’t know what was crazier yesterday. Oneil Cruz showcasing his laser rocket cannon of an arm. Or your boy, the @808Paperboi as they call me, somehow finding nine actionable bets on a 10-game slate, and finishing 8-1. Could’ve been 9-0 too if Noah Syndergaard didn’t get a strikeout on the last out he recorded. Just sayin’. Let’s roll that success over to today’s games.
Zac Gallen over 17.5 outs (-110) vs SD
God, I love this four-eyed glasses-wearing man who doesn’t spell his name with a k. Zac Gallen had been the gift that kept on giving early on in the season, until a couple of clunkers more recently. I gave him a three-start break, but am ready to cash again as he takes on the Manny Machado-less Padres. I’ll be honest, this might be more of a gut call than anything considering the Padres have been mashing against righties as of late; however, it’s not like the list of righty starters they have faced instill much fear in any lineup.
Gallen does a great job at limiting hard contact (top 80% hardhit%) and baserunners (.99 WHIP). Since he built up his pitch count, he has gone at least six innings in six of his last ten starts. The last two righties to face the Friars, Zach Davies, and Antonio Senzatela, both had quality starts, so why can’t our boy Gallen? SaberSim projections have him finishing with 6.1 innings tonight in San Diego.
Dylan Cease under 17.5 outs (-120) vs TOR
Can you tell these pitching-out props are my favorite yet? Dylan Cease is a strikeout stud, but that along with his general lack of control leads to long at-bats and heavy pitch counts early on for the White Sox hurler. With an 11..5% walk rate, Cease ranks in the bottom 16 percentile in BB%. An even more telling stat is his pitches per plate appearance (4.16) which is tied for sixth-highest among 113 qualified starters. He has stayed under this mark of 17.5 outs in 10 of his 13 starts this season.
Facing the Blue Jays will be no easy task for Cease either. Toronto has the 3rd best wRC+ (130) vs RHP over the last 30 days. Over that same span of time, only six of the 20 right-handed starters they have faced have completed at least six innings. Also worth noting is the 15 mph winds blowing out to left field. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. dinger anyone? SaberSim projects Cease to go 5.2 innings. If this doesn’t hit, blame the computers. Not me.
Roansy Contreras over 5.5 strikeouts (+110) vs CHC
Going through a rebuild, the Buccos are littered with rookies, and Roansy Contreras is the best young pitcher they have in the big leagues right now. For whatever reason, the Pirates didn’t have him stretched out to start to begin the year, but he has amassed 35 strikeouts in 31 1/3 innings this year. If we want to get into technicalities then he technically has only gone over this in two of his five starts, but take a look at who he faced in those under spots. The Rockies, Padres, and Cardinals. All of those teams rank in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts.
When he has had the pleasure of a whiff-heavy team, such as the Braves (7Ks) and Diamondbacks (8Ks), his punchouts have flourished. Well, tonight he gets the Cubs who have been very strikeout heavy as of late. They have the fifth-highest K% (24.4%) and sixth-worst wRC+ (81) against RHP over the last 14 days. Over that time seven of the nine righties they have faced have recorded at least six strikeouts. Ronasy has a dazzling 32.3% CSW% and is projected to finish with 6.01 punchouts according to SaberSim. If you’re feeling bold and want to ladder his strikeouts he is +215 to have seven Ks, +430 for eight, +830 for nine over at FanDuel.
Potential Adds/Leans
Martin Perez is as efficient as it gets (6th best Pit/PA out of 113 SPs) and has pitched at least six innings in 10 of his last 11 starts. The matchup is tough, however, he did pitch seven scoreless innings against the Phillies earlier this year. His outs prop sits juiced at -150 for him to go at least six tonight.
Chi Chi Gonzalez is making his debut for the Brew-Crew tonight. He is not good and was in the bottom 1 percentile in just about everything last season. The Cardinals have the fifth-best wRC+ (118) over the last 30 days against righties. Their team total sits at juiced to over 4.5 runs at -130.
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)