Living in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, I tend to miss all the best lines for the pitcher props I love. What a problem to have. I do occasionally post overnight on my Twitter, so this is obviously my shameful plug to follow me over there if you like my analysis here.
Shane McClanahan Over 17.5 Outs (-130) vs. NYY 2U
We have an absolute banger of a matchup tonight between the Yankees and Rays, and I love Shane McClanahan to go at least six innings pitching at the Trop. The Rays’ young lefty is the current odds-on favorite to win the AL Cy Young, and it is easy to see why. Just look at his profile on Pitcher List. Everything is bright RED!
Since getting his pitch count into the 90s and above, he has pitched at least six innings in seven straight contests and that includes two different occasions against the Yankees. Obviously, the Bronx Bombers can be scary to be betting against, but McClanahan is in that elite tier of pitching where the matchup does not really matter. This line does not reflect how dominant he is and even if he struggles a tad it’s hard not to see him working at least six innings tonight at home.
Max Fried Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130) vs. SFG
My magic crystal ball forecasts a lot of swings and misses in yet another incredible pitching matchup in this Giants and Braves contest. I’m already on Logan Webb’s strikeout prop with how poorly the Braves fair against changeups. Now, I’m liking Max Fried to go over his as well after realizing how poorly the Giants have faired with the strikeout lately. They have the third-worst K rate (25.2%) against LHP over the last 30 days.
Fried has racked up at least six punchouts in six of his last nine games and has a history of suppressing San Francisco’s bats to a tune of a .238 xwOBA over 57 plate appearances. Atlanta’s ace ranks in the top 97 percentile in chase rate and the Giants are 19th in O-Contant%. If Julio Urías can drop 10 strikeouts on the Giants, then I feel like Fried can get at least six tonight.
Yankees (-130) vs. TB
This is a tad contradictive to the McClanahan play I just wrote up, but with a low total of just 6.5 runs, I feel like he can pitch at least six innings in a losing effort to the winning machine that is the New York Yankees. The starting pitching matchup between Gerrit Cole and Shane McClanahan is pretty much a wash in my eyes, but the Yankees clearly have the advantage on the offensive side of things, especially with Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco on the sidelines for Tampa. New York has the fourth-best wRC+ (163) against lefties over the last 14 days while the Rays are just 24th (82) against righties over that same span. Tampa is also just 2-7 over their last nine, while the Yankees just continue to find win after win this season.
Potential Adds/Leans
I’m already on the NRFI for the Cardinals and Brewers game, and I’m tempted by the Corbin Burnes strikeout prop as well. Over 7.5 strikeouts at -115 is a very high line against a team that hardly strikes out against RHP, but Burnes has a track record against them that is hard to ignore. He has a 41.5 K% in 106 plate appearances vs. the Red Birds and tallied 11 strikeouts against them about a month ago. He has cleared this line in seven of 13 starts this year.
Gerrit Cole has Tampa’s number when it comes to strikeouts, but I am waiting for a better number than the current -143 price it is listed at for eight Ks. Since ’19 he has faced the Rays 15 times, including the playoffs, and has recorded seven or more punchouts in all 15 starts. He has gone over this line in 12 of 15 averaging 9.9 strikeouts per start. The Rays have the fourth-highest strikeout rate (25%) vs. RHP this year, which is in line with their rate over the last 14 games.
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