Cincinnati Reds Run Line
The Reds have been an excellent offensive team thus far with a .329 team wOBA (third) so they should have no problem putting up runs against Kyle Freeland, who has struggled through three starts this season putting up a 6.23 ERA and 2.08 WHIP.
His issues early on have been with efficiency as he’s yet to venture into the sixth inning along with next to no ability to miss bats with just a 7.3% swinging K rate and an elevated walk rate of 12.7%. To be fair, Freeland is a pitcher who has shown strong ability in the past, most notably a stellar 2018, but his K-BB% of -1.6% this year is an immediate red flag. It’s difficult to imagine a quick turnaround given his draw against a strong Reds lineup especially at a venue that amplifies power like the GABP.
The Reds will counter with Tyler Mahle who has been effective with a strong 20.4% K-BB% while holding batters to an impressive .286 wOBA (.287 xwOBA). Couple that with the Rockies’ well-known offensive woes on the road (.253 team wOBA, dead last) and you have a solid case for the Reds to pull away tonight.
Pick: Reds -1.5 (-108 DraftKings)
Tarik Skubal Total Strikeouts
Eight strikeouts seem like a reasonable return for Lucas Giolito on the other side of this one. In his last start against this same Tigers team, he recorded nine strikeouts backed by an impressive 41% CSW. We’ve been picking on the Tigers all year as their team K rate of 27.1% against RHP is the worst in baseball. But I like the value here with Tarik Skubal. Simply put, I think we’re witnessing a breakout campaign for the highly touted lefty.
For more on that be sure to check out Chad Young’s article detailing Skubal’s impressive month here. In his last start against these same Sox, he recorded 11 strikeouts backed by an impressive 36% CSW. He’s exceeded the seven strikeout threshold in each of his last four starts. And last time out we saw his pitch count finally crest over 100.
Pick: Over 6.5 (+111 DraftKings)
Blue Jays Total Runs
The Blue Jays rank fourth in baseball with a .327 team wOBA. Tonight they travel to Fenway Park to take on Garrett Richards who pairs middling strikeout ability (20.6% K rate) with questionable command and control evidence being an elevated 11.3% walk rate and a surfeit of hard contact (50.8% hard-hit rate, .343 xwOBA). Heading into tonight’s contest, his ERA of 3.88 is overshadowed by an xERA of 4.81.
I do also like the Astros in their matchup against Matt Shoemaker but given that their total is set at five and a half runs with the over at -134, I think there is better value here with a powerful Blue Jays offense against an erratic pitcher in Richards.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-109 DraftKings)
Ryan Amore Overall Record: 15-14-0
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)