Alex Cobb Total Strikeouts
The Twins could become a lineup worth targeting now with the losses of Alex Kirilloff (wrist surgery) and Nelson Cruz (trade). You have to sort of wonder if Josh Donaldson is next. Anyways, Alex Cobb’s 26.2% K rate this year is a career-best. Five strikeouts is a modest total that I think he can get to, also helps that he threw 109 pitches his last time out. In that start, Cobb had the splitter rolling, throwing it 41 times while getting 11 whiffs on it (26.8% CSW). That’s a good sign as his splitter usage is paramount to his strikeout ability. Cobb has seen the Twins already once this year, back on May 20th, he only threw 58 pitches and went five innings as it was part of a double-header, he did get four strikeouts in that one though. Now with a full workload, five K’s seems like a reasonable return for Cobb. Also, Luis Arráez, who has one of the lowest K rates in baseball, is dealing with a knee injury and his absence further dilutes this lineup.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-125 DraftKings)
Lucas Giolito Total Strikeouts
Lucas Giolito is coming off a dominant performance against one of the best offenses in baseball, the Astros. A complete game performance, allowing just a single run while recording eight strikeouts backed by a 36.4% CSW. So he’s rolling now and he’s a strong bet to go deep in this game, having gone over 100 pitches in all but one of his last eight starts. Tied for fourth among qualifiers in SwStr % with Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray, Giolito is one of the best bat-missers in the game. Tonight’s context should give him a boost too as he faces a National League team that has yet to see him this year. While the Brewers’ team K rate has come down a little bit relative to what it was at the beginning of the season, their K rate over the last month of 24.5% is still good for sixth-highest in baseball.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-110 DraftKings)
Reds vs Cardinals Run Line
I like backing the Reds here as they’ll have a strong advantage on the mound tonight with Tyler Mahle whose 20.7% K-BB% is tied for 17th among qualifiers with Sean Manaea. The visiting Cardinals have not been much offensively this year as their team wOBA of .298 is fifth from the bottom. On the other side, is Wade LeBlanc whose K rate of 13.4% is in the bottom 2% of the league. He’s also allowed a .347 xwOBA to go along with a 5.23 xERA. It’s unfortunate that the Reds are missing Nick Castellanos for this game. But there’s still enough power here to do some damage and it’s not as if LeBlanc has been any good against lefties either, as he’s allowed a .338 xwOBA to them this year so that sets up well for the likes of Jesse Winker and Joey Votto.
Pick: Reds -1.5 (+120 DraftKings)
Ryan Amore Overall Record: 24-23-0
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