Cardinals at Rockies Alternate Total Runs
With Coors Field as the backdrop, the Rockies are rolling out Chi Chi González whose 13.8% K rate, 6.36 xERA, and .384 xwOBA are all in the bottom 3% via baseball savant. After being muted last night, this is a prime spot for the Cardinal’s offense. And the other side of this game should also feature plenty of scoring opportunities as the Rockies at home are an offense worth backing with a .350 team wOBA in that split, trailing only the Reds and Blue Jays. They’ll face Johan Oviedo who, similar to his counterpart, has a well-below average 17.8% K rate combined with a loud .362 xwOBA allowed. He’ll also be backed by a Cardinal’s pen that has allowed a ton of baserunners, their relievers combining for a 9% K-BB% (worst) and 1.40 WHIP (tied for seventh highest). With a potential slugfest ensuing, there is some extra value in going after the alternate total.
Pick: Over 13 (+112 DraftKings)
Miami Marlins Total Runs
The Marlins’ lineup isn’t a juggernaut (you don’t say!) but I think Drew Smyly is a matchup worth targeting. After showing a 37.8% K rate across last year’s brief five-start sample, that number has been almost halved this year to just 19.7%. His xERA stands out a 5.08 and hitters from both sides of the plate have done damage to him this year, as he’s allowed a .388 xwOBA to lefties and a .336 xwOBA to righties. The Marlins do have some power with Jazz Chisholm at the top along with Jesús Aguilar, and Adam Duvall in the middle that could take advantage. Starling Marte has been excellent so far this year too with a .402 OBP. And Jesús Sánchez is an impressive young hitter that I think could emerge down the stretch, he posted an outstanding .442 wOBA with Triple-A Jacksonville prior to his callup.
Pick: Over 4.5 (+108 DraftKings)
Houston Astros Total Runs
This one is pretty simple as we’re getting baseball’s best offense in the Astros (.345 team wOBA, first) against a very suspect rookie pitcher in Sam Hentges who carries an ugly 7.32 ERA and 1.99 WHIP into tonight’s contest. And that’s backed by an elevated 11.7% walk rate and an alarming .395 xwOBA allowed. Hentges also posted a 5.11 ERA and 1.65 WHIP across 128.2 innings for Double-A Akron back in 2019. This just seems like a huge mismatch worth targeting.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+108 DraftKings)
Ryan Amore Overall Record: 19-19-0
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)