Alright, everyone. Brace yourselves. I’ve got some big news that I want to share: I’ve completed my psychic training and I’m a Psychic! This means…there’s no way any of these can lose! I’ve been going through a lot of mental simulations lately as well, and the chakras in the stratosphere are aligned, so it’s literally, not figuratively, impossible for us not to sweep today. Let’s get it.
Gerrit Cole over 6.5 strikeouts (-122) vs CLE
You might be thinking, are you crazy? The Guardians do not strike out. They’ve literally got the lowest strikeout rate against righties on the season. To that I answer, yes I am crazy. I will also give another answer: some pitchers are matchup proof and Gerrit Cole is one of them.
At this point, I don’t think I need to list all the stats to prove that Cole is an elite ace, but I will anyway. He has a 33.9% CSW (5th best), 31.8% K% (8th best), and is in the top 84% in xwOBA/xERA. The Yankees ace has tallied seven or more strikeouts in eight of his last 10 starts averaging 8.4 strikeouts per game over that span, and like I said he’s matchup-proof. Over those 10 starts he faced the Astros (7th lowest K% vs RHP) who had eight strikeouts and the White Sox (6th lowest) who had nine. Cole had nine punchouts against Cleveland earlier the year! He owns a 38.2% K rate against that whole roster (89 plate appearances)! I’m not yelling! You are!!!
Brad Keller over 16.5 outs (-105) vs DET
The other day I stared at Dane Dunning’s out prop at 15.5 against the Royals, and really wanted to take the over, but then reason got in the back of my head. I told myself even in the best matchup Dunning isn’t a good pitcher, and I shied away. Well, guess what he did? He coasted through that line like an umbrella down a windy beach. Now guess what I’m going to do today? Ignore reason and bank of Brad Keller.
Let’s try to be reasonable here though. The Tigers can’t hit against righties. They have the worst wRC+ (68) on the year, and over the last 30 days (62). They also see the seventh-fewest pitches per plate appearance. Now as we all know Brad Keller isn’t some sort of world-beater, but he is an innings eater. He has cleared this line in 10 of 14 starts and went seven innings against Detroit earlier this year. Keller is also efficient with his pitches and ranks 13th/114 in Pit/PA (3.66).
Obviously, rosters change over the years, but for what it is worth he has tamed the Tigers for his career and gone at least six innings in seven of nine starts against them. He has held the roster to a paltry .294 wOBA over 129 plate appearances. The Tigers have also struggled mightily against Kellers two primary pitches: the fastball and slider. They’re 29th in wFB (-32.6) and 27th in wSL (-20.2).
Alright, I lied about that being the last thing, because this is the final thing in my Brad Keller manifesto: the Tigers put the ball on the ground at the 10th highest rate, and Keller has the 10th best groundball rate (50.2%). Whew, that was a lot for a crummy pitcher, but if that’s what it takes for me to convince you then I’ll do it. I know some of you don’t believe in my mental simulations…
Chris Bassitt over 18.5 outs (+145) vs TEX
If outs prop is not available Mets -1.5 (+105)
I put this in earlier, and unfortunately, it’s now juiced to -200 for over 17.5 outs, but there’s a chance this line bounces back on DraftKings, and if it does you want to put this in at this divine +145 price. The Rangers see the 3rd fewest Pit/PA (3.81) and Chris Bassitt has owned them for his career. He has faced 10 of their batters and held seven of them hitless. Bassitt has kept them in check to a .249 xwOBA in 67 plate appearances and they rank 22nd in wRC+ (91) versus RHP this year. The Bass Man has eclipsed this line in three straight starts and hurled seven innings in all four starts against the Rangers last season.
I realize some people might not have access to this out market, and if you don’t I do lean towards taking the Mets on the run line at +105. Glenn Otto starts for Texas and he is not good. In fact, he is bad ranking in the bottom 1% in xwOBA/xERA. I mean the Nationals just roasted him for six earned in just two innings in his last start. The Mets offense hasn’t been too hot lately, but Otto is the man to help this team right the ship at home tonight.
Marlins/Nationals F5 under 5 runs (-110)
Josiah Gray and Trevor Rogers toe the rubber tonight in D.C. tonight. These aren’t typically the pitchers to back in this spot, so let me put you on why tonight is the night to do so. Gray has shaken off his early-season woes, and over his last five starts has compiled a 1.24 ERA across 29 innings pitched. That includes five innings of shutout ball against the Marlins just three weeks ago. Miami is without Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jorge Soler might be absent dealing with a back issue as well. The Fish are 22nd in wRC+ (89) against RHP over the last two weeks.
Trevor Rogers sports a 5.86 ERA (4.59 xFIP) but has the track record of shutting down the National’s offense. They have just a .253 xwOBA in 96 plate appearances against him, and he has allowed just two earned runs in 11 innings pitched this year against them. Washington is 22nd in wRC+ (95) when facing left-handed pitching. Avoid these bullpens that are prone to blowing up, and stick with the first five under that seems a hair too high.
***AS ALWAYS KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE WEATHER***
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)