Bets of the Day – July 10th

Kyle Stanzel highlights Thursday's best bets around baseball.

Another minor cold streak has plagued me these past couple articles as the All-Star Break rapidly approaches. Some time off might not be such a bad thing, reset a little bit. But in the meantime we are going to keep grinding and throwing out the best bets we can find.

This season, I have decided to treat readers to four bets in each article under the following parameters: 1) A bet on a team, 2) A bet on a total, 3) A batter prop bet, and 4) A pitcher prop bet. Hopefully, this diversification will lead to success in our wagers (but probably not).

 

Tigers @ White Sox Moneyline After 5 Innings

 

I’m going to be honest, this bet terrifies me and it should terrify you too. Off to a hot start. But stay with me here because I think we can shock the world. When the Detroit Tigers face off against the Chicago White Sox on Sunday, Drew Hutchison and Michael Kopech will take the mound so naturally we are going with Chicago here, right? Nope. The Tigers are actually looking for the series win after taking the first two games of the series before being shut out by Johnny Cueto. I actually think they pull off the upset here and the main reason is Michael Kopech. The uber-talented former top prospect has clearly been dealing with some injury issues and his fastball velocity has been down in the 93-94 MPH range as opposed to his usual 96-97 MPH. He has taken the L in each of his last 4 starts and it really got out of hand in his last start when he allowed 8 hits, 6 ERs, 4 BBs and an absurd 4 HRs in 4.2 innings against Minnesota. Before the shutout yesterday, the Tigers had scored 28 runs in the previous 4 games and I’m thinking they will be able to push several people across the plate early against Kopech.

Let’s not get it twisted, Drew Hutchison is not a pitcher we should be backing. In his 3 big league starts this season he has pitched a combined 13.2 innings and has struck out a total of 4 batters. However, he also has allowed just 6 ERs and one of those starts was against these White Sox. At +160 I am going to take the longshot Tigers here just for the first 5 innings because I could see the White Sox bats getting hot late and saving Kopech from the loss. But for the first half of the game, I’m all Tigers.

Pick: Tigers ML After 5 Innings (+160 DK, +156 FD)

 

Giants @ Padres O/U 7.5 Runs

 

A southpaw soiree is scheduled Sunday showing San Francisco set against San Diego. Thank you for indulging my alliterative opening. Back to business, Alex Wood and MacKenzie Gore take the mounds for their respective struggling NL West teams trying to get them back on track. The big reason for the recent downfall of San Francisco and San Diego is their toiling offenses, as they are both in the bottom 4 in baseball in wRC+ over the past two weeks (SF – 69 wRC+, SD – 78 wRC+). The Giants are averaging 2.8 runs per game over their last 10 games and Padres are averaging just 2.5 runs. On top of their poor recent form, the teams are both just middle of the pack on the season against LHP.

Alex Wood hasn’t been his best self this season but some of the underlying numbers are showing a much better pitcher (4.83 ERA vs 3.32 xFIP). On the other hand, MacKenzie Gore has been tremendous this season for the Padres outside of two bad outings against the Rockies. If you take away his Colorado starts, Gore has allowed just 9 ERs in 58.2 innings which is a very crispy 1.39 ERA. If you aren’t convinced, then I can’t help you because the under 7.5 is the play here.

Pick: UNDER 7.5 Runs (-105 DK, -125 FD)

 

Juan Soto & Justin Turner O/U 0.5 Total Bases Each

 

As terrible as I feel about the Tigers moneyline bet from earlier, I feel equally as confident in this batter parlay here. Nobody has been hotter over the past two weeks than Juan Soto and he is vaulting into his typical post-All-Star Breakthrough. Soto has a .455/.617/.788 slash line in the last two weeks and also has 2 hits in each of his last four games. Going against Ian Anderson and his 1.54 WHIP this season, getting one hit should be no problem for Soto. Anderson has allowed at least 6 hits in all but one of his last 7 starts and has been fighting to figure things out in 2022.

Justin Turner has had himself a very nice past couple weeks, slashing .390/.435/.683 with 4 HRs. On Sunday, Turner and the vaunted Dodgers lineup faces Cubs LHP Drew Smyly, back from rehab. Smyly was moderately impressive at the beginning of the season with a 3.80 ERA, but he also allowed more hits than innings pitched (44 hits in 44.2 innings). Just off the eye test, I am fully confident in Turner getting a hit today. However, Smyly’s splits also favor Turner in this one, as his xFIP against RHH is far higher (4.36) than his xFIP against LHH (3.45). As far as batter parlays go, I’m not sure there is a duo I am more confident in than Juan Soto and Justin Turner.

Pick: Soto/Turner OVER 0.5 Hits Each (+118 DK, +135 FD)

 

Shane Baz O/U 5.5 Strikeouts

 

With the Hail Mary that is the Detroit Tigers already on the board, I feel like get a layup in here. At -155, Shane Baz’s over 5.5 strikeouts definitely falls under the layup category. Aside from his first start of the season, Baz has reached 6 Ks in each of his four starts since and that is without going very deep into the ballgames. Over the last week, no team has struck out as much as the Cincinnati Reds and their putrid offense (31.7 K%). I am very excited for this pitching matchup today between Baz and Nick Lodolo and I fully expect Baz to bring it. 5.5 is no problem so take the easy money here.

Pick: Baz OVER 5.5 Ks (-155 DK, -138 FD)

 

Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 45-47

Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $396.52

 

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Kyle Stanzel

New Jersey-born and North Carolina-bound, Kyle is as die-hard a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as there is, attending the last ever game at Three Rivers Stadium and the first ever game at PNC Park. Follow him on Twitter @style_kanzel

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