Bets of the Day – April 25

Tyler Gentile highlights a couple of plays he likes on today's docket.

Welcome to another edition of Monday betting madness. It doesn’t actually have to be that mad if you don’t want it to be. I mean, it’s just baseball. Pretty relaxing sport to watch; however, if you’re reading this, you’re probably a baseball dweeb like me, so let’s get mad at every missed strike call like Kyle Schwarber on these strikeout props tonight.

 

Walker Buehler Over 5.5 Strikeouts +122

 

Look…well actually don’t look at Walker Buehler’s¬†strikeout log this year. They’ve taken a back seat to start the year, but that changes tonight when he faces the Diamondbacks in Arizona tonight. Despite his paltry K% to begin the year, his chase rate ranks in the top 93rd percentile, and he has dominated this Arizona roster over the course of his career.

Across 121 plate appearances, the Snakes have a .287 xwOBA and 29.2% strikeout rate against Buehler, and when he faced them in 3 starts last season (now it is okay to look at strikeout logs) he punched out 7, 11, and 7 batters. Owners of the worst strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching, the D-backs were just mowed down by a similar hard-throwing righty, Tylor Megill, yesterday and he finished with 7 strikeouts. With all that being said getting Buehler at this +122 price feels like a steal based on the success he has had against the Diamondbacks.

 

LAD Run Line -115 vs. ARI

 

Good teams win, great teams cover. That makes the Dodgers both good and great because they are 11-4 to start the year and have won by two or more in all 11 wins. Los Doyers have advantages in every which way over the Diamondbacks. When it comes to offense, the Dodgers are 6th in wRC+ while Arizona is 25th. The discrepancy between the bullpens is even more drastic, as LA’s relievers hold the best xFIP whereas the Diamondbacks are dead last. We already know about Buehler’s track record against Arizona, and the forecast looks bright for the LA offense when they take on Merrill Kelly. They have smacked him around for a .410 wOBA over 122 plate appearances. Let’s keep rolling with the run line covering machine that is the Dodgers.

 

Max Scherzer Over 7 Strikeouts -130

 

As the old adage goes, there is no place like home, and the St. Louis native Max Scherzer definitely takes this to heart. Dating back to 2015, Mad Max has returned home on five different occasions and has absolutely shoved against his hometown team. He has surpassed this line in all 5 appearances with 55 strikeouts in 34.2 innings good for a 40% K rate.

I don’t know what his momma is feeding him before these games, but whatever it is, Max goes nuclear when he pitches at Busch Stadium. The current roster holds a 34% K rate and .235 xwOBA in 186 plate appearances against Scherzer, and in 32 starts since ’21, Max has gone under seven strikeouts on just seven occasions. I’m going to pay up for the safety of having a push here, but I do think he gets to eight strikeouts tonight, and that is listed at +127 at my book.

 

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

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