It was only a matter of time before I regressed to the mean. While I was hotter than Yermin Mercedes to start the season, I was due for a bad betting day and that happened when I went 0-3 on Monday. But you know what, that’s ok. If you are confident in your baseball knowledge and research, there is no reason to be discouraged by an off day. It happens. Time to get back up on the horse:
Jesse Winker Total Runs O/U 0.5
Riding a six-game hitting streak coming into Thursday, I really wanted to take Jesse Winker over 0.5 hits here but at -250 the payout there just doesn’t justify me recommending it. However, if we believe Winker will be on-base consistently against Taylor Widener and the Diamondbacks today then it stands to reason that he will have great opportunities to score a run. At -125 on DraftKings, I like that payout way more and I am confident in Winker to at the very least put himself in scoring position more than once. In addition to his six-game hitting streak, Winker is 3 for 3 in his career against Widener. Playing a day game at 12:35 PM EST might prove difficult for Widener as well since it is mid-morning in Arizona at that time. All signs are pointing towards Winker having a good day on Thursday.
Pick: OVER 0.5 (-125 DK)
Yankees @ Indians Total Runs O/U 8
Two pitchers I am abnormally high on going against two of the coldest offenses in baseball? Sign me up for the under, especially when it is as high as eight runs. Domingo German the person is terrible. Domingo German the pitcher has been terrible this year, but he still has the stuff that he had back in 2019 when he went 18-4. The Indians have struggled to hit this year (89 wRC+), but they have especially struggled to hit RHP (80 wRC+, 26.8 K%). This is a great bounceback spot for German as he comes back from a brief stint at the alternate site.
Aaron Civale has been a revelation so far in 2021 with three consecutive quality starts, a 2.18 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. The Yankees haven’t been much better against RHP this season (82 wRC+) and the Bronx Bombers have been Bronx Busting over the last week (42 wRC+). The weather is going to be cold and blustery on Thursday and I’m not sure the batters are even going to want to make contact against German and Civale. I will be watching this pitching matchup with great intrigue and will be looking at this one to lean heavily towards the under.
Pick: UNDER 8 (-112 DK, -102 FD)
Cubs Total Runs O/U 4.5
The Cubs went nuclear against Mets starting LHP David Peterson and the bullpen for 16 runs and the North Siders get another mediocre LHP in Joey Lucchesi today. Chicago’s offense has been very subpar to start the season as hitting at Wrigley in April is never easy, but they are showing signs of life scoring in double digits for the second time in four games. Chicago has actually been good against LHP this season (110 wRC+) and current Cubs hitters have an impressive history against Lucchesi. In 23 total at-bats, eight Cubs hitters have combined to slash .652/.680/1.130, including Javier Baez who has hit 5 for 6 with two home runs. While not a huge sample size, that success rate is hard to ignore and I think the Cubs will reach 5 runs with relative ease on Thursday.
Pick: OVER 4.5 (-106 DK, +102 FD)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 10-6-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +723.82
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)