I want you all to know I woke up at 4 am (Hawaii time) in anticipation of writing this today. The horrors of not getting my article published Monday had me tossing and turning throughout the night. It was my fault, and I refuse to let it happen again, because I know there is someone out there who is dying for another sweep (in the right direction this time). Here are a few plays that have caught the attention of my bloodshot eyes.
Cardinals Moneyline -120 vs Reds
This will likely be a popular play throughout the baseball betting community for a clear and obvious reason: the Reds. Owners of the worst record in baseball, the Reds are on a 9-game losing streak and have the worst wRC+ (50) among all teams. The offense is not getting any better either due to the absences of Mike Moustakas, Jonathan India, and Tyler Stephenson. Yes, Hunter Greene and his 100+ mph fastball have looked good, but he is still a rookie going through the growing pains of facing Major League ballclubs. Greene has yet to throw more than 5.1 innings, and that bodes well for St. Louis, considering the Reds feature the second-worst bullpen in terms of xFIP. At a -120 price, I am willing to overlook the shakiness of Steven Matz, and bank on the recent form of this Cincinnati team.
Reid Detmers over 4.5 strikeouts -150 vs BAL
Rumor has it the Orioles are allergic to putting the bat on the ball. They have the highest strikeout rate against southpaws, and guess who they face tonight? Lefty hurler Reid Detmers. The Angels prospect hasn’t had the most success early on in his career, but we’re not asking for amazing results. We want the K’s, and Reid will supply them tonight. Despite facing two of the more K-averse teams in the Astros and Rangers, Detmers sports a ~33% CSW rate that ranks in the upper echelon of all starters. FanGraphs SaberSim projects 6.10 punchouts for Detmers tonight, and with this matchup, it is easy to see why. A ladder play on Detmers is enticing here as well if you have access to alternate strikeout lines.
Phillies over 3.5 runs -130 vs MIL
The track record against Freddy Peralta cannot be denied. The Phillies have mashed the ball across the field in 69 plate appearances against him for a .491 wOBA. Nick Castellanos has particularly had his way against Peralta, going 7-13 with 4 doubles and a homer against him. He is +120 to record over 1.5 total bases and I will be playing this as well. Freddy has not looked sharp in his first two starts of the year, as he has struggled with his control and possesses an 11.47 ERA. The Cubs knocked him around for 3 runs in four innings, while the Cardinals put up 6 in just three innings against him. If this Freddy shows up again, the Phillies playing in Philadelphia shouldn’t have any issues finding 4 runs tonight.
Mets/D-Backs NRFI -115
Let’s close this card out with a good ol’ fashioned sweat by wagering on betting baseball’s favorite pastime: the NRFI (/nur-fEe/). If you’re not familiar with the No Runs First Inning bet, it has swept the hearts of gambling twitter over the last year or so. It’s a blast, and Zac Gallen and David Peterson are getting out of the first unscathed once again tonight.
The two ballclubs matched up just a week ago and both pitchers had successful NRFI’s. Dating back to last season Gallen has gone 17-7 to the NRFI, while Peterson has a 12-4 record. The top four hitters projected hitters in the Mets lineup (Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso) have gone a combined 2-19 with two singles, two walks, and six strikeouts vs Gallen. The Diamondbacks have the third-worst wRC+ (74) and have failed to score a run in the first in 11 of 13 games this year. When entering the NRFI sauna, don’t forget to breathe, drink plenty of water, and enjoy the road to glory over these six outs.
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)