Hello, friends: Today I will attempt to make some winning bets. This has been difficult lately, as I’ve inexplicably lost nine straight. I’ll admit that some of the picks I have made have not been the smartest. Note to self — never take the Jacob deGrom under in strikeouts. Having said that, there have been some terrible beats mixed in as well. None of these bets have been longshots. During this losing streak, every single one has been in the odds range of -162 to +106. The fact that nine wagers have lost in a row is baffling to me.
According to the internet, the odds of losing nine hands of blackjack in a row is 0.31 percent. This may not be a one-to-one comparison in terms of losing nine straight bets, but it’s close enough for me. Anyways, here are some more picks.
Marco Gonzalez O/U 4.5 Strikeouts
In three starts this year, Marco Gonzalez has struggled. Over 15.1 innings, the 29-year-old lefty has allowed 14 earned runs on 20 hits. Six of those hits have been home runs. Today, Gonzalez gets to face the juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers. Although Gonzalez has surpassed the 4.5 strikeout mark in two of his three starts this season, I do not see that happening today. The Dodgers as a team have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 22.9 percent. More importantly, they have the best offense in the sport. At this point in the season, they have the second-highest team wRC+ in baseball (121) behind the Red Sox (128). The Sox have been scorching hot to start the season, while the Dodgers have just been themselves. In this game, I think Los Angeles will bounce Gonzalez before he has the chance to rack up enough strikeouts for the over.
Pick: Marco Gonzalez Under 4.5 strikeouts (+112 DK)
Pirates at Tigers O/U 7.5
Looking at the pitching matchup, we have Tyler Anderson (1-2, 4.02 ERA) against Michael Fulmer (1-0, 3.00 ERA). As far as pitching matchups go, it doesn’t get more mediocre than this, with Fulmer getting a slight edge. In their last series, in which they were swept by the Athletics, the Tigers scored a total of six runs in four games. They were shut out twice. In the three games before that, Detroit swept the Houston Astros and tallied 20 total runs.
Against the Pirates, I believe runs will be scored. Perhaps they won’t score 20 runs in three games, but I believe they can surpass the six-run mark. As far as the Pirates’ offense goes, the team has been surprisingly decent, averaging just over five runs per game over their last nine. During that span, they’ve gone 6-3. In the game tonight, I expect plenty of runs.
Pick: Over 7.5 runs (-115 FD)
Brewers at Padres Money Line
When looking at this game, I see two things. The first is a pitching matchup I like. In this one, we have Corbin Burnes against Chris Paddack. Burnes is the better pitcher by far. In 18.1 innings this season, he has allowed just one earned run (on a solo homer) and four total hits. He has struck out 30 and has yet to walk a batter (although he has hit two). To say Burnes has been electric thus far would be an understatement. Barring an injury, he will likely be in the Cy Young discussion toward the end of the year. On the other side, Paddack has been fine in three starts this year, just not on Burnes’ level. In 13 innings pitched, he has allowed six earned runs on 13 hits.
The other thing I see in this game is the odds. The Brewers and their ace are underdogs against the Padres and their No. 5 starter. I’ll take the underdogs and their ace all day.
Pick: Brewers ML (+100 FD)
Nathan Hursh Overall Record: (3-12-0)
Net Money (assuming all wagers are $100): –$850
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)