Bets of the Day – April 17th

Kyle Stanzel highlights Thursday's best bets around baseball.

Happy Easter Sunday, everyone. I will be spending my Sunday consuming a disgusting amount of jelly beans and watching some day baseball. Plenty of interesting matchups for our enjoyment as the first full week of the season comes to a close

This season, I have decided to treat readers to four bets in each article under the following parameters: 1) A bet on a team, 2) A bet on a total, 3) A batter prop bet, and 4) A pitcher prop bet. Hopefully, this diversification will lead to success in our wagers (but probably not).

 

Giants @ Guardians Run Line First 5 Innings

 

Sports betting isn’t always just about knowing the game and the players the best; it is also about knowing the sportsbooks and the values across the various options. There are so many different bet options thrown out there by the books that sometimes you can find some bets where the odds don’t quite match up, and you can take advantage.

For example, Alex Wood and the Giants will go for the sweep against Aaron Civale and the Guardians on Sunday. I was very high on Civale last season, but as I watched him, I began to realize that he is not quite as good as the numbers he put up (3.84 ERA compared to 4.83 FIP). He was exposed quite a bit in his first start against Kansas City, allowing 4 hits, 4 runs, 3 walks, and 1 HBP, and I fully expect Wood to outduel him in Cleveland.

However, for the full game, the Giants moneyline is -130, which I’m not sure is worth putting money on. Further research shows that DraftKings offers the Giants moneyline for the first 5 innings at -135, which again is not really worth putting money on. However, they have the Giants’ run line (-0.5) for the first 5 innings at +110. Now that is a number I can get behind and can justify my confidence in the Giants and my lack of confidence in Civale. Check your books to make sure it is available, and if it is, hammer the Giants 5 inning run line.

Pick: Giants -0.5 After First 5 Innings (+110 DK)

 

Reds @ Dodgers O/U 8.5 Runs

 

Normally, I would be terrified to even look at the under in a Reds/Dodgers matchup, but these are crazy times we live in. In a pitching matchup between Vladimir Gutierrez and Tony Gonsolin/Tyler Anderson on Friday, the two teams combined for just 4 runs. Then last night, a Hunter Greene/Julio Urias matchup resulted in just 7 runs from both teams.

Now we have Tyler Mahle on the mound for Cincinnati, who has allowed just 1 ER in 9 innings so far this season, and Andrew Heaney, who was outstanding in allowing 0 ER in 4.1 innings in his first start. Am I afraid that the vaunted Dodgers lineup will get to Mahle, and Heaney will revert to his erratic former self? Of course, but in life and in betting, we need to face our fears head-on and take the under. Fortune favors the bold, so grab some peeps and strap in for a third consecutive Cincinnati/Los Angeles under.

Pick: UNDER 8.5 Runs (-105 DK, -102 FD)

 

Michael Chavis Total Bases O/U 1.5

 

Michael Chavis opened some eyes in his rookie season with the Red Sox, crushing 18 HRs in 382 plate appearances in 2019. However, he was never able to shake his plate discipline woes in Boston and was shipped off to the Pirates last season. The 26-year-old has enjoyed an outstanding start to 2022, slashing .500/.571/1.000 with more grand slams (1) than strikeouts (0).

Patrick Corbin takes the mound for the Nationals against Pittsburgh on Sunday, and we have been waiting for three years now for Corbin to return back to his former top of the rotation self. At this point, I just don’t think it is happening. 8 ER in 6.2 innings so far this season certainly doesn’t inspire hope for Nats fans either. Chavis has a career .235 ISO against LHP compared to a .154 ISO against RHP, so I like him to continue his hot start against Corbin, and at +140, I just can’t pass that up.

Pick: Chavis OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+140 DK, +140 FD)

 

Matt Brash Strikeouts O/U 4.5

 

If you didn’t watch Matt Brash’s first MLB start against the White Sox on April 12th, stop reading this right now and run, don’t walk, to the highlight reel because it was downright ELECTRIC. Chicago has one of the most talented lineups in baseball, and the amount of foolish half-swings Brash induced was mindboggling. A high 90’s fastball coupled with a frisbee slider allows Brash to rack up a 36.0% K% in the minors in 2021, and he continued that in his first start.

The schedule makers aren’t doing him any favors with the Astros in town on Sunday, but that doesn’t matter to me. Brash is that good, and 4.5 strikeouts is simply too low. Toss in the +100 odds, and I am all in. He could easily reach this in 2-3 innings, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he flirts with 8-10 strikeouts on Sunday.

Pick: Brash OVER 4.5 Ks (+100 DK, -110 FD)

 

Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 6-6-0

Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $140.00

 

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Kyle Stanzel

New Jersey-born and North Carolina-bound, Kyle is as die-hard a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as there is, attending the last ever game at Three Rivers Stadium and the first ever game at PNC Park. Follow him on Twitter @style_kanzel

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