It is easy to want to fire off multiple bets due to the excitement of baseball being back; however, the best advice would be to ease your way into the year until further data comes along. I don’t listen to dumb (wise) advice like this though. Where’s the fun in that? What I do prescribe is limiting the size of your unit as the season starts off. With all that being said, let’s fire off on a couple of wagers this Monday.
Mariners Team Total Over 4 Runs (-125)
Happy Dylan Bundy day, everybody! Here’s an accurate portrayal of how this man pitched last year, it goes a little something like this. Among pitchers who had at least 90 innings pitched last year, Bundy had the 9th worst ERA (6.06). While ERA doesn’t completely tell the story, obviously, he was in the bottom 24% in xwOBA, bottom 12% in Barrel%, and had a 4.66 xFIP.
The Twins also shipped off their closer Tyler Rogers to the Padres, and we’ve already seen a blown save from Tyler Duffey. The Twinkies had the 10th highest bullpen ERA in ’21. Despite their slow offensive start, this Mariners lineup packs a punch and has the capacity to explode on Bundy day. If anyone is playing DFS, J.P. Crawford is 6-15 with 2 doubles versus Bundy. Is Bundy a changed man from last season? We will have to see it to believe it first.
Alternatively, if team total runs don’t tickle your fancy, a play on Seattle’s moneyline at +115 looks mighty attractive as well, especially factoring in who is on the mound for them. The Mariners went 22-9 in games that Chris Flexen pitched in last year. Seeing the Minnesota bats go nuclear for 10 runs yesterday scared me off from this wager, but +115 with Bundy on the bump certainly has value to it.
Huascar Ynoa Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+102)
The Nationals lineup has been stymied by hard-throwing righties to begin the year. Small-sample-size alert: the Nats have the 4th highest K% (27.8%) and 2nd lowest wRC+ (32) against RHP in the early going. All 4 Mets right-handed starters cleared this 4.5 threshold and Huascar Ynoa’s high-octane fastball/slider combo profiles similarly to those who have faced Washington already. The Nats lineup has a 27% K rate and .284 xwOBA against Ynoa, and he cleared this mark in 2/3 starts against them last season. SaberSim projections have him penciled in for 4.38 strikeouts, but based on the Mets’ success, I think he gets at least 5 today.
Matt Manning Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125)
A 60 FV grade prospect, Matt Manning got off to a rocky start to begin his career last year with a 5.13 xFIP across 85 innings pitched. He was also pretty strikeout prone with just a 6.01 K/9 and ranked in the bottom 4% in K% and bottom 1% in Whiff%. Manning stayed under 3.5 strikeouts in 11/18 starts last year, and for what it is worth, he failed to rack up more than 3 strikeouts in all 4 spring starts. The Red Sox boast a bevy of big boppers throughout their lineup, and they don’t strike out very often. Of the 9 hitters in the lineup today, only 3 batters have a career K rate of 24% or higher. SaberSim projections see Manning finishing with 2.85 strikeouts today in his first run against the Red Sox.
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)