Five months and 68 bets later, I’m right where I started. Assuming the same $100 placed on every wager, the season’s net total is nearly even. I’m down exactly a dime, and not the dime referring to a $1,000 bet. Ten cents.
Five more Sundays remain in MLB’s regular season to get back in the green. If that doesn’t happen, the real winnings were the friends made along the way. Wait, I didn’t make any friends either? Oh, let’s try to get some more bets right then.
Twins at Rays: Run Line
Griffin Jax commenced the second half by allowing one run in three consecutive starts. He then posted a career-high 10 strikeouts in a quality start against the White Sox. However, things then went south in a hurry. He’s since surrendered 20 hits and 19 runs in his last three outings. Jax compiled 12 combined strikeouts in those turns while issuing nine walks.
Furthermore, Cleveland, Boston, and Milwaukee pummeled him for 29 total hard hits. Last weekend, the Brewers squared him up for five barrels and a 98.2-mph average exit velocity. He’ll now have to combat a Rays lineup that leads MLB in wRC+ (120) and ISO (.219) after the All-Star break. Tampa Bay has won 15 of its last 18 games with a blistering plus-62 scoring margin. Only one of those victories was by exactly one run.
While Jax has unraveled, Luis Patiño is blossoming. The 21-year-old allowed three total runs in back-to-back wins against the White Sox and Red Sox, collecting five strikeouts to one walk against each AL contender. He’s also flourished at Tropicana Field, registering a 2.01 ERA and .263 opposing wOBA in 31.1 frames this season. Patiño should enjoy some more home cooking against the Twins, who have stumbled to 22nd in wRC+ after the All-Star break (96) without Nelson Cruz. A bullpen first in ERA (3.07) and FIP (3.45) will then be waiting to secure the Rays’ 87th victory of the season.
Pick: Rays -1.5 (-108 on FanDuel, -110 on DraftKings)
Astros at Padres: Moneyline
As they fight for their playoff lives, the Padres have lost 15 of their last 21 games. Even after popping 10 runs last night, they’ve scored just 75 runs during that drought. Only the Royals, Angels, and Pirates have a lower wRC+ over the last 30 days. After their bats woke up in Saturday’s crucial 10-2 win over the Astros, they’ll look to take the series over a team with a winning record (currently) for the first time since closing June with two triumphs at Cincinnati.
To do so, Chris Paddack must combat an Astros offense sporting MLB’s highest wRC+ and lowest strikeout rate against righties. That’s certainly a steeper challenge than he encountered Monday. Paddack returned from a month-long IL stay to allow one run in 4.2 innings against the Diamondbacks, who are 28th in wRC+ against righties.
The schedule has broken Paddack’s way this year; he’s faced Arizona four times while only once meeting the Giants, never running into the Dodgers, and hosting the Rockies at Petco Park. He’s nevertheless saddled with a 4.98 ERA. Oddly enough, he’s yielded a .328/.359/.534 slash line to fellow righties and a .367 wOBA at home. However, the most concerning element of his disappointing campaign is the .365 wOBA against Paddack’s four-seam fastball, which he’s used on 61.6% of his pitches.
Meanwhile, Luis Garcia quickly reversed a brief rough patch to permit seven combined runs over his past five starts. He wields a 3.23 ERA and 3.43 FIP during an exceptional breakout campaign. The Astros actually have a leaner moneyline than the Padres because of the venue and yesterday’s outcome, but they’re still 38-31 on the road. Look for them to hand San Diego another setback.
Pick: Astros (-104 on FanDuel, -105 on DraftKings)
Luis Castillo: O/U 6.5 Strikeouts
Pinpointing the Tigers for a strikeout prop worked last Sunday, as José Berríos snapped out of a funk to record 11 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings. Let’s again back an electric, but erratic ace fanning over a batter per frame. Luis Castillo’s 23.5 K% and 9.1 K/9 represent notable dips from his career 26.2 K% and 9.8 K/9. The 6.5 line is also perfectly reasonable for a pitcher averaging 5.7 punchouts per start with seven or more strikeouts in 12 of 28 turns.
However, that’s ignoring recent progress. Since the All-Star break, Castillo has compiled 63 strikeouts in nine starts, giving him exactly seven per turn. That’s because he’s completed six innings — all quality starts — in all but of those appearances, a major problem earlier in the season. He should continue to distance himself from a brutal April and May with a successful outing against the Tigers, who rank 20th in wRC+ against righties (90). Another six innings should get Castillo over 6.5 strikeouts against a lineup possessing an AL-worst 25.8% K rate.
Pick: Over (+105 on DraftKings, -110 on FanDuel)
Andrew Gould Overall Record: 33-35 (One Push)
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): -$0.10
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)