The difference between 1-2 and 2-1 is quite stark. After weeks in the mire, I found my groove last Wednesday to give you a 2-1 performance for the record books encapsulated by Ronald Acuña Jr.’s walk-off HR against the Mets to cash the Braves’ over bringing my record to 12-9-1 (+3.5u) on the season. Who really needs that stress, though? Here’s to a nice and easy 3-0 day today!
Twins vs Orioles O/U 8.5 Runs
Shockingly, this may be my first full game run total wager on the year. I like to stick with single team totals since there are less moving parts, but this number stuck out to me. Michael Pineda is starting against Jorge López on a crisp, sunny afternoon in Minnesota. Neither of those names are particularly imposing nor miss many bats, meaning the ball is going to be put in play at a high rate. That sun is also important, as Minnesota is still in the process of warming up (last night’s game was played at about 50°) and the run environment at Target Field seems to vary seasonally.
The Twins also have the highest percentage of overs cashing in in baseball this season at 68.1% (32-15-1) due to their offensive firepower and poor pitching. This has the makings of a high-scoring affair.
Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs (-115 DraftKings)
Mets vs Rockies O/U 6.5 Runs
This is the exact same total as last night’s matchup between these two teams, one that featured the return of Jacob deGrom, and I was shocked to see such a low number. However, it went under with some wiggle room.
Despite any preconceived notions about this Mets’ offense, it is downright abysmal at the moment. They have an alarming 17 players on the IL including Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, and Kevin Pillar. Someone named Johneshwy Fargas was getting regular ABs before he too fell victim to the injury bug. The only three healthy regulars, Francisco Lindor, James McCann, and Dominic Smith, have all been listless for the better part of the season. I see very few opportunities for them to score runs.
Then the Rockies, owners of the lowest road OPS in baseball by a wide margin, who cannot hit away from Coors. It’s a tale as old as time that reigns more true without Nolan Arenado. Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon both slumping does not help, either. I can’t see either of these offenses doing much against Germán Márquez or Marcus Stroman this evening.
Pick: UNDER 6.5 Runs (+100 DK, +100 FanDuel)
Dane Dunning O/U 4.5 Ks
Back to my bread and butter, I love Dunning and this strikeout total. His 26.1 K% so far proved his success as a rookie was no fluke and it has been a pleasure to watch him improve this season. This number is honestly a little bit disrespectful given that fact that he’s only struck out less than four batters twice this season: once in Houston and once in Chicago against the White Sox. This Angels lineup (sans Mike Trout) does not pose a comparable risk to those two. Take Dunning’s over.
Pick: OVER 4.5 Ks (-132 DK)
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)