Athletics at Twins O/U 8.5
With a record of 12-24, the Twins are currently the worst team in baseball. They have lost five straight and eight out of their last nine. Somehow today though, against the first-place Athletics, they are favored to win. Part of this might be because José Berríos (3-2, 3.49 ERA) takes the mound for Minnesota. In his one start against the A’s this year, Berrios went five strong innings while giving up one run in a loss. Part of this may also be because although Oakland has a great record (24-16), they have been a bit lucky this season. With a run differential of -8, the A’s have a Pythagorean record of 19-21. For reference, the Twins’ Pythagorean record is 16-20.
Staring for the A’s in this matchup is Cole Irvin (3-4, 3.29 ERA). After two rough starts to begin the season, Irwin has been great in his last five. Over that span, he has allowed just seven earned runs over 31.1 IP (2.01 ERA). During their current cold streak over the past nine games, the Twins have scored more than three runs two times. I started this blurb thinking that I was going to take the Athletics money line. I changed my mind though. We’re taking the under.
Pick: Under 8.5 runs (-109, DK)
Athletics at Twins First Inning O/U 0.5
In that same vein, I will also be taking the first inning under. In my last Best Bets article, I took a first-inning over/under and it worked out. Here we are again drawing from that same well. I mentioned earlier how Irwin has been spectacular in his last five starts. In the first inning specifically of those starts, he has not allowed a run. In Berrios’ seven starts this season, he has allowed a first-inning run just one time. That came in his last start against the Tigers. There is no chance that he allows a first-inning run in two straight starts. Or at least that is what I believe.
Pick: Under 0.5 first-inning runs (-114, DK)
Padres vs Cardinals O/U 7
Looking at this pitching matchup, the over/under for runs scored seems a bit light. For the Padres, Chris Paddack (1-3, 4.78 ERA) takes the bump. Paddack has been straight-up shaky this season. In his last start, the 25-year-old right-hander tossed his only scoreless outing so far this season. That said, he only went three innings. In his other five starts, Paddack has not lasted for more than 5.1 innings. In every one of them, he’s allowed at least three runs (although not all have been earned). The Cardinals should have success scoring runs in this game.
For the Cardinals, Adam Wainwright (2-3, 3.80 ERA) gets the start. I’ll give Wainwright credit. At age 39, the man keeps on logging solid innings. In his last start, he tossed 8.1 scoreless innings against the Rockies. Two starts before that, he threw a complete game in a 2-1 loss to the Phillies. I know that the league as a whole has been striking out like crazy, but it’s still impressive to me that Wainwright currently has the highest strikeout rate (23.5 percent) of his career thus far. As a whole, he’s been nice this season. That said, tonight against the Padres, I expect some runs to be scored.
Pick: Over 7 runs (-106, DK)
Nathan Hursh Overall Record: (10-22-1)
Net Money (assuming all wagers are $100): –$1,221.51
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)