Well… this is rock-bottom. Last week was by FAR the worst gambling I have ever done, seen, or recommended in my life. I said to bet the Cardinals ML, they gave up 11 runs in the first inning. I said to bet David Peterson’s strikeout over, he didn’t strike out one batter. I said to bet the Braves’ over, Jon Lester shut them down. That dismal showing dropped my season record below .500 to 12-14-1 (-2.1u). Time to get back on the horse!
Matt Harvey o/u 3.5 Ks
Harvey’s fall from grace has been well-documented. From demanding the ball in Game Five of the 2015 World Series to falling out of favor in New York to Thoracic Outlet Surgery, you won’t find another fringe major-leaguer with this type of fame. And when I say ‘fringe’, I’m being generous.
Harvey was cruising along through mid-May before a game against these same Mets at Citi Field. It was an emotional afternoon as the Queen’s faithful saluted Harvey. He then proceeded to allow 7 ER in 4.1 IP and his season has spun out of control with a 12.96 ERA since that day. However, Harvey’s strikeouts have ballooned as his effectiveness dropped, punching out more than 10 per 9 innings over the same stretch. He will not be around long tonight, but long enough to find four strikeouts.
Pick: OVER 3.5 Ks (-120 DraftKings, -106 FanDuel)
Tony Gonsolin o/u 4.5 Ks
I am VERY excited for this debut. Gonsolin has been criminally underrated for years and overlooked due to the superstardom of his teammates. Despite this, there is a strong chance he does not stick around this game long enough to hit this total. He threw just 60 pitches in his final minor league tune-up last week and should be on track for around 75 today. That likely winds up around four or five innings.
Additionally, the Pirates do not strike out much against right-handed pitching. For all their warts (last in OPS, 27th in wRC+), they have the 8th lowest K% against RHP. There is some sneaky value here.
Pick: UNDER 4.5 Ks (+105 DK, +106 FD)
Rangers vs Giants o/u 8 Runs
The Giants offense has taken a hit after losing Mike Yazstremski and Evan Longoria to injuries. Moreover, the lineups for this game just came out: no Buster Posey, nor Alex Dickerson while the Rangers are giving Joey Gallo and Nate Lowe the afternoon off. Neither of these two teams has a prolific offense anyway, especially the Rangers, so missing some of their top bats will make an impact.
Otherwise, Kyle Gibson has been a pleasant surprise this season with a 2.06 ERA and should be able to keep the undermanned Giants off the board
Pick: UNDER 8 Runs (-114 DK, -115 FD)
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)