A little momentum back on our side! We needed a few victories and by gosh, we got them last Wednesday. The shame of it all was the fact that it could have been more. To get into the diary of a gambler, my horrific Cardinals Moneyline bet from June 2nd had me a little gun shy about playing an underdog despite my research and gut feeling about the Nationals over the Rays at +180. Whatever, going to follow my process from now on.
My record is 14-15-1 (-1u), time to get back into the green!
Brewers vs Reds Moneyline
This a marquee NL Central matchup between who I believe to be the division’s two best teams. The Reds have pulled their season out of the doldrums winning 13 out of 15 games to vault themselves right back into the thick of things. It’s not ‘good process’ to use a recent hot streak to add to the viability of a bet, but the Reds are playing such good baseball I’ll overlook it.
Their offense is sizzling, Tyler Mahle has been in a groove (more on that in a bit), and their defense has drastically improved (especially without Eugenio Suárez out there). Josh Hader likely being unavailable (pitched four out of five days) helps a lot, too. There is just too much value here to pass up.
Pick: Reds OVER Brewers (+135 DraftKings, +128 FanDuel)
Brewers vs Reds O/U 8 Runs
I inconspicuously did not mention much about this pitching matchup in my Reds pick. Freddy Peralta will be on the mound for the Brewers and is a budding ace. His 37.0 K% trails only Jacob deGrom among all qualified pitchers as he has cemented himself as one of the best young pitchers in baseball.
Mahle has also enjoyed a tremendous breakout. Since a disastrous outing against (2 IP, 7 ER) the Giants on May 20th, Mahle has allowed 6 ER in 23.1 IP to go along with 24 K and just 4 BB in four starts. The Reds are also 4-0 in those games, but I already told you they’d win today.
The only deterrent to this number is the Reds’ bullpen. One of the worst in baseball, they have the highest ERA in the league since June 1st and are without Tejay Antone. Nevertheless, I’m still confident given the pitching matchup and lack of punch in each lineup.
Pick: UNDER 8 Runs (-114 DK, -114 FD)
Blake Snell O/U 6.5 Ks
The key factor here is Snell facing the Rockies in Denver. Far and away the worst offense in baseball away from home, Coors Field continues to prop the Rockies up. They have the third-lowest K%, third-highest OPS, and fourth-highest wOBA at home. All that spells trouble for Snell who has relied on his slider and curveball to get the lion’s share of his whiffs so far this season. Smells like an under.
Pick: UNDER 6.5 Ks (-113 DK, -122 FD)
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)