Welp, my hot streak came to an end last week with a brutal 0-3 performance where two of my plays came nowhere CLOSE to hitting. I stand at 19-19-1 (+0.2u) on the season. A remarkably even record for my last batch of picks before the All-Star Break, here’s to staying above water at the mid-way point of the season!
Mets vs Brewers Moneyline (Game 1)
I ventured out to Queens on Tuesday night to watch this game live because you drop what you’re doing when Brett Anderson comes to town. Ok, I kid, I had every intention of catching Jacob deGrom in person before a powerful storm swept through New York City. With the postponement, the Brewers were able to shuffle their rotation and match Corbin Burnes up with deGrom rather than the vaunted Anderson.
Burnes has cemented his status as a legitimate top-five pitcher in the game and can be as good as number two on any given day, behind deGrom of course. Still, the odds here are dramatically lopsided towards deGrom and the Mets. The Brewers have been incredibly hot and can certainly find a way to beat deGrom in this seven-inning affair.
Pick: BREWERS (+140 DraftKings, +144 FanDuel)
Giants vs Cardinals ML
I like the underdogs today. Johan Oviedo will face off with Alex Wood in San Francisco tonight in a game that the bookmakers strongly (-195) expect a Giants’ victory. I see tremendous value there. Wood has enjoyed a resurgence this season (along with seemingly every member of the Giants) and has gotten back to his groundball-wielding ways with a 55.0% groundball rate.
The Cardinals hit the fourth-highest rate of fly balls in the league, yet do not have the results that usually come with such batted balls due to the home run suppressant nature of Busch Field. Their HR/FB rate at home is 9.1% and 12.8% on the road. Oracle Park is no band-box, but is much more friendly to offense since the fences were moved in. I like the Cardinals to find the seats today and make this game interesting.
Pick: CARDINALS (+160 DK, +152 FD)
Blue Jays O/U 6.5 Runs
Back to the Matt Harvey well I go, there’s no way this guy can keep two of the best offenses in baseball down back to back, right? He limited the Astros to just two runs in 4.1 IP last week, giving me a loss on my Astros over. There are few offensive environments quite like Camden Yards in the summertime and the Blue Jays should be all over the ‘Dark Knight’ this afternoon.
Pick: OVER 6.5 Runs (+108 DK, -106 FD)
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)