We’ve now had time to digest a chaotic MLB trade deadline and now look ahead to the final two months. August starts with all 30 teams taking the field, featuring six divisional showdowns and four interleague matchups. The Rays and Red Sox will battle for first place in the AL East, and the teams with each league’s best record will collide when the Astros oppose the Giants.
Here are some bets to potentially make a stacked day of baseball even sweeter.
Cleveland at White Sox: Moneyline
This is merely a matter of chasing a long shot for a nice potential payout. Don’t bet too much on Cleveland upsetting the White Sox, who are far more superior than the eight-game disparity in the AL Central standings indicates. Chicago has a plus-111 run differential to Cleveland’s minus-29. The White Sox also have an MLB-best 36 wins at home and added Craig Kimbrel two days ago.
But Dylan Cease isn’t inspiring much trust these days. Since posting a 2.98 ERA through May, the unpredictable righty has a 5.18 ERA in his last 11 starts. The unflattering cutoff point commenced with Cleveland crushing him for six runs on June 1, and he’s since surrendered six runs in separate starts against Houston and Minnesota. Opponents have a .384 xwOBA against Cease’s four-seam fastball, which he’s deployed to a 45.9% usage rate. Although he could bounce back in a favorable matchup, at least Cleveland didn’t trade José Ramírez or Franmil Reyes.
On the other hand, Cal Quantrill has permitted exactly one run in each of his last three starts. It’s likely smoke and mirrors; he has a 4.68 ERA in 11 starts and a subpar 16.3% strikeout rate even when including his bullpen work. The former highly regarded prospect is at least capable, at least capable enough to consider placing a small portion of your bankroll on a +175 underdog coming off Saturday’s wild 12-11 win.
Pick: Cleveland (+175 on DraftKings)
Astros at Giants: Moneyline
Hey, the Giants are finally getting some respect. They’re still fending off the Dodgers with an MLB-best 65 wins after splitting two games with the Astros, who top the AL with 64 triumphs. San Francisco is favored to take the rubber match behind Logan Webb, who just stifled the Dodgers to three hits and a run over six innings Tuesday. He’s made three of his last five starts — and his last two — against the NL West rival without giving up more than two runs in any.
Webb has continued his quiet breakout since returning from a shoulder injury, posting a 2.00 ERA and .222 wOBA against in four outings. The 24-year-old faces another daunting challenger in the Astros, who lead the majors in wRC+ against righties (119) this season. Backing the favored Giants anyway requires considerable confidence in Webb. He’s earned it. The proper recognition has yet to come, but Webb wields a 3.36 ERA and 3.20 FIP in 67 innings. His ERA shrinks to 1.61 at Oracle Park, which is noteworthy since his worst start (3.2 IP, 6 R) occurred at Coors Field.
The opposing Luis García is also flourishing with a 3.19 ERA, 3.30 FIP, and 29.3% strikeout rate. My initial reaction was to tout the under before taking a closer look. Garcia also has steep scenery splits, registering a 2.24 ERA at home and 4.54 ERA on the road. Of more concern, however, is lefties slugging .467 with a .337 wOBA against the righty. The Giants will attack with their specialized left-handed outfield of LaMonte Wade Jr. (166 wRC+ vs. RHP), Mike Yastrzemski (132), and Steven Duggar (126). They also just welcomed back Brandon Crawford (160) from the IL and are riding hot streaks — against pitchers of either handedness — from Darin Ruf and Thairo Estrada. Look for the unassuming contender to claim the series with a statement win over Houston.
Pick: Giants (-115 on DraftKings, -116 on FanDuel)
Athletics at Angels: O/U 10 Runs
This AL West showdown had the highest opening run line of any game posted Saturday night on DraftKings. The line stands at 10 runs despite the first three games of this series combining for seven runs. The loser went scoreless each time.
Maybe the oddsmakers aren’t too excited about Reid Detmers. The 22-year-old created plenty of buzz for Sunday’s MLB debut by collecting 106 strikeouts to 18 walks over 60 minor-league innings (54 in Double-A). He prompted this promotion by allowing three runs in his last four turns. Oakland is a dangerous first opponent for the 22-year-young lefty, especially with Starling Marte in tow, but Detmers is a promising talent.
Oakland will also promote a rookie to toe the rubber. James Kaprielian was originally supposed to start before getting placed on the IL with a shoulder impingement. However, Daulton Jefferies won’t arrive with nearly as much buzz. The righty got tagged to a 5.19 ERA in a dozen Triple-A starts. Turning 26 on Monday, he’s not a young hot-shot either. Yet the control specialist has a dazzling 8.33 K/BB ratio over his minor league career, including 54 strikeouts to just nine walks in 59 innings this season.
Jefferies isn’t exactly getting fed to the sharks either. Already down Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, the Angels recently lost Jared Walsh to a right intercostal strain. As a result, the run line is high enough to roll the dice on two unknowns holding their own.
Pick: Under (-110 on DraftKings, -112 on FanDuel)
Andrew Gould Overall Record: 27-26 (One Push)
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$287.02
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)