I must admit. My best bets of the day have not been all that great thus far. Nine bets in, I am 3-6 and have lost $250 imaginary dollars. This past Saturday in particular was terrible, as I went 0-3. What can I say, though? Betting can be difficult at times. There is a reason that legal betting sites are growing at an insanely fast rate. In today’s betting world, the gambling sites’ algorithms are creating odds and lines that are more precise than they ever have been before.
It should be said too that when I make these picks, chalk picks (or picks with, say, -200 odds or greater) will never be included. For example, I would never include a bet such as the San Diego Padres money line tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates (-245 FD). The point of the best bet is to attempt to find value in the odds. And I need to be better. No excuses, though. Let’s make some picks.
Twins vs. Red Sox O/U 8 Runs
Since losing their first three games of the season to the Baltimore Orioles, the Boston Red Sox have been red hot, winning six games in a row. In those six games, they have scored 53 runs, which is just under nine runs per game. Today, they will face Kenta Maeda, who as it turns out, is a well-above average starting pitcher in this league. In two starts this year, Maeda has tossed 10.1 innings while giving up four runs (three earned) on 13 hits. He has struck out 11 and walked three.
When it comes to the Twins’ offense overall, they have been solid, averaging just over six runs per game. That said, they have been a bit inconsistent. In three of their nine games, they have scored three or fewer runs. In another three games, they’ve scored eight or more. Today they’ll face Nathan Eovaldi, who has been stellar in his first two starts. Over 12.1 innings pitched, he has given up two earned runs on seven hits. He has 11 strikeouts and four walks. Although the pitchers in this matchup have been nice, I like the offenses more, especially since this O/U seems a bit low to me.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (-118 FD)
Yankees at Blue Jays Money Line
Coming into today, both of these teams have looked pretty similar. The New York Yankees are 5-5 with a +7 run differential, while the Toronto Blue Jays are 4-6 with a +5 run differential. So far this season, these teams are 2-2 against each other. For the Blue Jays tonight, Hyun Jin Ryu takes the mound. In two starts this year, Ryu has given up four earned runs over 12.1 innings. He has 12 strikeouts and four walks. In his start against the Yankees on Opening Day, Ryu allowed two earned runs over 5.1 innings. He will oppose Jameson Taillon, who, in his first start since 2019, looked pretty good. He allowed two earned runs on three hits (two of them were home runs) while striking out seven. In this game, I like the Yankees. Although he was solid on Opening Day, Ryu has not been great against the Yankees in five career starts. Over 27.2 career innings pitched against them, he’s given up 17 hits, including eight home runs.
Pick: Yankees ML (-102 FD)
Reds at Giants Money Line
After their offense got off to a torrid start, the Cincinnati Reds have cooled a bit. Over their past three games, they’ve scored just six runs. Tonight, they’ll face Kevin Gausman and the San Francisco Giants. The 30-year-old righty has been electric in his first two starts, allowing two runs over 13.2 innings pitched. That said, he has gotten some BABIP luck (.194). For the Reds, Luis Castillo takes the hill. After an Opening Day disaster in which he gave up eight runs, Castillo settled in nicely in his second start, tossing seven scoreless innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. What a perfect antidote it was for him to face such a team. The Giants’ offense has not been much better than the Pirates’, though. They have 31 total runs in 10 games. In their past eight games, they have not scored more than four runs once. I expect Castillo to cut through this lineup like butter. I also expect the Reds to score just enough runs to win the game.
Pick: Reds ML (-108 FD)
Nathan Hursh Overall Record: (3-6-0)
Net Money (assuming all wagers are $100): –$250
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)