Another week of treading water just means I have one less week to get into the green here. Yet another 1-2 performance has my year-long record at a paltry 29-33-1 (-2.2u) with time running out.
Brandon Woodruff O/U 6.5 Strikeouts
Back to basics. Woodruff is striking out nearly 30% of the batters he has faced this season, asserting himself as one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. He has taken a half-step back since the sticky-stuff enforcement back in June (1.94 ERA before, 3.11 after), but he is actually striking out MORE batters since the rule change.
Moreover, the Tigers have returned to being a lower-tier offense after their outburst following the All-Star break. Since August 1st, they are striking out the third most often in baseball (25.5%) and have the ninth-lowest wOBA (.304). Ride Woodruff.
Pick: OVER 6.5 Ks (+100 DraftKings, -108 FanDuel)
Julio Urías O/U 6.5 Strikeouts
Calling my shot here: Urías will be the most undervalued SP in 2022 fantasy drafts. He has simply been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year by every metric and stat across the board yet does not get praised as one of the best pitchers in baseball. Among qualified pitchers, he is 12th in ERA, 16th in K%, 9th in WHIP, and leads the league in wins. The guy is a bonafide stud.
For today’s pick, he is going up against the Diamondbacks at home. Arizona’s lineup is not as bad as their record would indicate, but they still strike out a ton (fourth-most in the league since August 1st). I expect Urías to work efficiently and hit this number.
Pick: OVER 6.5 Ks (-110 DK, +104 FD)
Orioles vs Yankees O/U 1o Runs
This is one of the highest run totals I have seen all season. Guess what? I don’t care! This is Baltimore in September people, Major League Baseball’s closest thing to the Amazon Jungle. The ball should be flying around Camden Yards tonight.
Also, two lefties are on the mound in John Means and Néstor Cortes Jr. The Yankees handle left-handed pitching very well with the myriad of right-handed power bats in their lineup and Means has not been quite himself over the last month or so. Additionally, the Orioles are fantastic against left-handed pitching, especially at home, with the third-highest wRC+ and seventh-highest wOBA.
Pick: OVER 10 Runs (-110 DK, -110 FD)
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)