Happy Sunday folks! Writing this Picks Post on a weekly basis has given me a sturdy stable of selections, sturdy enough to spot my own trends. After 6 weeks of making picks, I have won 9 games and lost 11 while being down 2.17 units. Time to get my head above water this week!
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Blue Jays Red Sox o/u 1.5 runs 1st Inning
Remember during Summer Camp when Robbie Ray showcased a new delivery and redefined control? Neither do I! This season has become a true slog for Rob, pitching to a 7.34 ERA and losing 4 games in just 7 starts. The struggling Diamondbacks shipped him off to Toronto at the trade deadline and today marks his first start as a Jay, a start I think will go badly. Ray has walked 18.9% of batters he’s faced this season, an almost inconceivable number while allowing one of the highest opponent’s Exit Velocity in the league at 93.0 mph. That number jumps to 96.0 in the 1st inning, and I predict the Red Sox top-heavy lineup will jump on him early.
The other side of this matchup is Red Sox starter, Andrew Triggs. It is difficult to call any Red Sox pitchers ‘starters’ in the traditional sense of the word, and Triggs is no different. A great comeback story from a player who has not pitched in two years, I would be surprised if he got through even 1 clean inning today against the scalding Jays lineup. They are one of FTN’s favorite stack targets today and both teams have an incredible likelihood to score in the first inning today
Pick: OVER 1.5 Runs 1st Inning
Rays Total Runs o/u 4.5
Trevor Rogers has been a pleasant surprise for the Marlins this season. Starting pitching is certainly their strength and Rogers has truly added to it. Check out this Statcast darling!
As good as he’s been, the Marlins’ bullpen has been brutal. Their FIP is second highest in the league at 5.53, only trailing the lowly Mariners. FTN’s bullpen usage report shows their pen has thrown the 7th most innings over the past week and the Rays will attack that beleaguered bullpen after Rogers exits.
Pick: OVER 4.5 Runs
Patrick Corbin o/u 4.5 Ks
Corbin is one of the great strikeout artists of this generation striking out 178 batters or more 4 separate times in his career and more than 235 each of the last two seasons. However, those numbers are on pace to dwindle this year; his 20.9 K% would be a four year low and he has only punched out more 5 hitters or more thrice.
That being said, the Braves are pitiful against left-handed pitching. Their wRC+ sits at a lowly 78 and they have the 2nd highest K% in the league against lefties. If Corbin can get some distance today, he should blow past this number.
Pick: OVER 4.5 Ks
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)