Best Bets Across the League 9/17

Kyle Stanzel highlights Thursday's best bets around baseball.

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Yankees Total Runs O/U 5.5

The Bronx Bombers are back to their old bombing ways, scoring 33 runs over their last two games against Toronto. DJ LeMahieu, Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, and Luke Voit feature prominently in FTN Bets’ Hot Hitter Report and the team as a whole has an MLB-leading 192 wRC+ in their last 7 games.

Chase Anderson has been blasted in his last two starts allowing 13 hits, 10 ER, and 4 homers over 6.2 IP in his last two starts. Even if he gives up a few runs early, Anderson is going to have to give the Blue Jays innings due to the team’s bullpen being heavily taxed during its two blowout losses in this series to New York. Look for the offense to keep rolling for the Yankees on Thursday.

Pick: OVER 5.5 (-114 DK)

 

Mets @ Phillies Total Runs After 3 Innings O/U 2.5

The Mets have been starved for pitching all season, but Seth Lugo has provided the team with some good innings in four starts since joining the rotation. Lugo has typically dominated as a reliever when he gets to face a lineup one time and was moved to the bullpen because of his propensity to run into trouble the 2nd and 3rd time through the order. In his last start against Toronto, Lugo allowed 3 ER in 5.1 IP, allowing a run each in the 4th, 5th, and 6th innings.

The Phillies are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and they look to Aaron Nola to help turn it around as they continue to fight for a playoff spot. Nola was victimized by some bad defense in his last start against the Mets, allowing 6 R and 3 ER in 5.1 IP. He still struck out 10 batters and allowed a total of 2 ER over 27 IP in his four prior starts against the Mets. I’m looking for both pitchers to cruise early and hit the under after 3 innings.

Pick: UNDER 2.5 (-136 DK)

 

Framber Valdez K’s O/U

Framber Valdez has had a very effective season for the Astros and a big reason has been reducing his BB% from 13.4% last season to 6.3% this year. However, Valdez has also elevated his K% from 20.7% in 2019 to 24.1% in 2020. Against Texas on September 1, Valdez struck out 8 Rangers over 7 innings. The Rangers have struggled overall against LHP this season (68 wRC+, 24.8 K%) and have also struggled mightily lately, scoring just 1 run in 3 of their last 4 games and striking out in an MLB-worst 33.6% of at-bats in their last 7 games. FanDuel is giving us some good odds today on Valdez strikeouts so the over is the play.

Pick: OVER 6.5 (+100 FD)

 

Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 24-25-2

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)

Kyle Stanzel

New Jersey-born and North Carolina-bound, Kyle is as die-hard a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as there is, attending the last ever game at Three Rivers Stadium and the first ever game at PNC Park. Follow him on Twitter @style_kanzel

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