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Mets Run Line
What Jacob deGrom is doing this year is pretty special. The two-time Cy Young Award winner has managed to increase his swinging strike rate from 15.4% to an unbelievable 21.2%. That’s first among qualified starters by quite a large margin. Second being Shane Bieber at 17.9%. The Phillies lineup is banged up right now having lost both Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto. Look for to deGrom to keep a less than full strength Phillies lineup at bay while he continues his remarkable quest for a third straight Cy Young.
The Phillies will be turning to Zack Wheeler who has been excellent in his own right as he owns a shiny 2.47 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. However, this will be his third time this season facing what has been a very good Mets offense. Their team wOBA of .358 vs RHP is third in baseball and they are also first in OBP and wRC+ at .358 and 129 respectively. This is an especially deep lineup when you consider Jeff McNeil, who going by the Hot Hitter report on FTN, has posted a 243 wRC+ over the last two weeks, is hitting seventh. This offense is certainly capable of getting to Wheeler. The Phillies bullpen has struggled all year too, with their relievers combining for a 7.18 ERA. FTN projections have the Mets implied team total at just under five runs, which should be more than enough support considering the dominance of deGrom.
Pick: Mets -1.5 (+128 DK)
Yankees Total Runs
This is just a favorable match-up for the Yankees as they’ll get to face Tanner Roark. The veteran righty has surrendered ten home runs this year across his eight starts. The batted ball data doesn’t paint a great picture for Roark including a .388 xwOBA and a very elevated 13.8% barrel rate, which is in the bottom 5% of the league. His xERA sits at 6.38 and he’s been walking guys at an 11.9% clip. That’s not a good recipe going against a patient Yankees lineup with power. The Yankees are slowly getting healthier too as both Gio Urshela and Giancarlo Stanton returned last night. Gleyber Torres was given the night off, but he should be back in the lineup tonight. Worth noting here too that Taijuan Walker did not make it out of the second inning last night, forcing the Jays to cover a lot of ground from their pen. So, they could be leaning on Roark to eat some innings tonight. Assuming Stanton and Torres are back in the lineup tonight, the Yankees will have six hitters who have had a .350 wOBA or better the past two seasons combined.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+112 DK)
Braves Total Runs
If you stacked the Braves last night in DFS you were left disappointed as they mustered just five runs. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t go back to the well again tonight. The one thing that sticks out with Keegan Akin are some troublesome walk rates. With Triple-A Norfolk last season, Akin had a 4.73 ERA and 1.51 WHIP to go along with a 12.1% walk rate. The potential control issues could spell trouble considering he’ll be at a platoon disadvantage against the likes of Ronald Acuña Jr. Marcell Ozuna, and Travis d’Arnaud. So far this year, the Braves lineup currently features six hitters with a wOBA of .350 or greater. It’s not hard to imagine them doing some damage here on the road at hitter friendly Camden Yards.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-114 DK)
Angels Run Line
It’s been a fantastic season for Dylan Bundy who is sitting on what is by far a career-best 23.6% K-BB%. He should have no problem dispatching an anemic Diamondbacks lineup that has managed just a .303 team wOBA against RHP (5th worst). Meanwhile, the Angels offense should be able to muster enough offense against Caleb Smith, who is still working his way back from an extended absence stemming from the Marlins’ outbreak earlier this season. Bundy and the Angels are massive home favorites this evening (-210).
Pick: Angels -1.5 (-103 DK)
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)