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Cardinals @ Brewers Moneyline
Kwang-hyun Kim returns to the mound after missing two weeks to start Game 1 of a doubleheader against Milwaukee. Kim was absent while taking a blood thinner, which while being an overall pretty scary health concern, doesn’t present as much of a hindrance to his pitching ability as, say, an arm injury would. Kim has been dominant in his four starts this season, allowing just 1 ER in 20.2 IP. While we have to be wary that Kim may not go his full allotment of innings, that shouldn’t be as much of an issue for the Cardinals in just a seven-inning game.
The Brewers are coming off being no-hit by Alec Mills and the Cubs and, outside of their 19-run outburst on Wednesday, have been a very pedestrian offensive team. Speaking of pedestrian, Josh Lindblom has straddled the line of mediocre and terrible all season and the Cardinals should have opportunities to score runs. St. Louis has been above-average offensively lately (109 wRC+ in last 7) and Tommy Edman is starting to live up to his preseason hype according to the Hot Hitter Report. The Cardinals are simply the better team here and we are getting them as an underdog.
Pick: Cardinals ML (+104 DK)
Athletics @ Mariners Total Runs O/U 6
A pair of LHP take the mound for Oakland and Seattle, two of the worst teams in baseball against LHP. The Mariners have an abysmal 69 wRC+ against LHP on the year while the Athletics have the second-worst K% (26.8%) facing southpaws in baseball. An O/U of 6 would be a reasonable number for a normal game, but this one is of the seven-inning doubleheader variety.
Marco Gonzales has been incredibly impressive lately, especially with the strikeouts, with 15 of them in 16 innings over his last two starts while allowing just three ER. He was equally as successful at home against Oakland last season, allowing just three ER in 15 innings. Jesús Luzardo was electric in seven IP against Houston in his last start, striking out seven and allowing just two solo HRs. With this game going just seven innings, there’s a chance we see both pitchers throw complete games making this an easy under.
Pick: UNDER 6 (-115 DK)
Pirates @ Reds Moneyline
It is very difficult to find any bright spots for the Pirates this season, especially after they just got swept by the lowly Royals. But prior to his injury, Mitch Keller was looking every bit the top prospect and ace he was projected to be. Keller returns on Monday to face a Reds team that has struggled for the most part in 2020 against RHP (91 wRC+).
Prior to facing the Pirates on August 13, Anthony DeSclafani had a 0.00 ERA in 11 IP. He proceeded to allow nine ER in two IP and his season has been all downhill since then. He goes into Monday’s start with a 7.20 ERA and 6.45 FIP to go along with 5.76 K/9 and 5.04 BB/9. DeSclafani is a pitcher even the Pirates can score against. At +155, this game presents tremendous value and the Pirates have to end this losing streak at some point. Keller v. DeSclafani in the second game of a doubleheader presents as good an opportunity to do that as any.
Pick: Pirates ML (+155 DK)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 24-19-2
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