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Astros @ Athletics Total Runs O/U 9
A pair of potent offenses face off for a Thursday matinee as the Astros and Athletics continue their battle for supremacy in the AL West. A pair of young, talented but enigmatic pitchers will start in José Urquidy and Sean Manaea. Urquidy will be making just his second start of the 2020 season and he was erratic in his first outing against the Angels, allowing seven base-runners in 3.2 IP. Manaea, on the other hand, has been fairly effective in his past three starts, mainly due to his ability to limit walks. However, the Astros are the second-toughest team in baseball for lefties to strike out (18.6 K%) in addition to their 133 wRC+.
Meanwhile, the A’s have been much better at the plate this year in day games as opposed to night games (105/95 tOPS+) and have averaged 4.6 runs against the Astros in the prior three games of this series, two of which were seven innings. FTN Daily’s MLB Optimizer projects Oakland at 5.3 runs and Houston at 4.6 runs, leading me to pick the over here.
Pick: OVER 9 (+100 DK, +100 FD)
Phillies @ Marlins Moneyline
In case you weren’t paying attention last night, the Marlins were defeated 29-9 by Atlanta. Yup, that happened. So you can bet the Marlins are ready to put that behind them as quickly as possible, and returning home to Miami certainly will help. Having a struggling Phillies lineup (85 wRC+ in last seven) come to town to face 2019 All-Star Sandy Alcantara will also help. Alcantara has allowed 1 ER or fewer in four out of his five career starts against Philadelphia and struck out seven while allowing just three hits in a win over the Phils back in July.
The once esteemed Jake Arrieta has been a shell of his former Cy Young self, striking out just 6.75 batters per 9 innings this year and allowing a career-high 39.2% hard-hit rate. The Marlins hitters weren’t the problem in the blowout loss on Wednesday and they have actually averaged 6.6 runs per game in their last five. Look for Miami to bounce back in a game that has serious playoff ramifications in the NL East.
Pick: Marlins ML (-105 DK, -104 FD)
Dodgers Total Runs O/U 5.5
Like Arrieta, Madison Bumgarner has looked like a shell of himself in 2020, pitching to a 8.44 ERA and 9.08 FIP in five starts. He is just flat out terrible in every conceivable category this year, and going against Kiké Hernandez and the Dodgers should keep that trend going. Bumgarner now pitches for Arizona, but his previous 10 years with San Francisco often pitted him against Hernandez, a matchup he routinely loses as Hernandez is batting a ridiculous .500 with a 1.379 OPS. in 50 AB. Not to mention that he has to go against the hot-hitting AJ Pollock and Mookie Betts, each of whom has also experienced success against the old, good version of Bumgarner. That guy is gone, and the Dodgers will continue the nightmare that is 2020 for Bumgarner.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-121 DK)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 23-17-2
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)