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Orioles O/U 3.5
Stephen Strasburg will make his first start of the year today against the Orioles in Washington. Last year’s playoff hero is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he sits atop my fade list for the day. To start, Stras has missed the season thus far dealing with a nerve issue in his pitching hand whose symptoms include tingling in his thumb right thumb. Bad, reeeaaaaal bad. He has been throwing bullpens for a few weeks and says he feels good, but the nature of nerve injuries are very difficult to judge, especially for pitchers.
Moreover, Davey Martinez said Friday that it would be “awesome” if he Strasburg gave them 75-80 pitches today. That language makes 80 pitches sound like an absolute best-case scenario for Strasburg today. With that ceiling set, it’s safe to assume that we will see a fair amount of the Nationals’ bullpen this afternoon, the same bullpen that has already pitched 8 2/3 innings this series (via FTN’s Bullpen Usage Report) and allowed 11 ER this series alone. This smells like trouble and the O’s should blow past their 3.5 run total.
Pick: Orioles OVER 3.5 (+120 DK)
Reds @ Brewers Moneyline
Aces are wild today and the Reds Brewers clash in Milwaukee is no different. Sonny Gray vs Brandon Woodruff is a marquee pitching matchup, and one that I think favors the Reds. Gray has built upon a bounceback 2019 campaign and truly looks like one of the best pitchers in baseball out of the gate.
Javy Báez's bat social distancing from Sonny Gray's Breaking Ball. pic.twitter.com/h1EvA4GnFY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 29, 2020
He is looking for his league-leading 4th win this afternoon and sports a 0.96 ERA and 41.2 K% to boot. Not to mention one of the highest spin rates in the league on that lovely bender you see above. Woodruff is fantastic as well and this should be a pitcher’s duel, but Gray and Reds are going off at plus-money and that value is too good to pass up.
Pick: Reds (+108 DK, +106 FD)
Reds @ Brewers O/U 7
Sticking with this game, it is only one of two that has a plus-money under all day. As I continue my hunt for value up and down the board, this play stands out. Offense is way down this season with the league-wide batting average dropping a whopping .021 points and power waning (albeit minorly). In that case, what better time is there to bet the under? Two aces out there, day game following a night game, some key boppers out of the lineup, give me all of this under.
Pick: UNDER 7 (+100)
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)Best